HS1.1.4

Panta Rhei: Hydrology, Society & Environmental Change

This session welcomes abstracts that consider how to observe, model and analyse interactions of people and water, and the effects of social and environmental changes on hydrological systems. It is organised as part of the IAHS Panta Rhei hydrological decade 2013-2022; and focuses on gains in our understanding of dynamic human-water systems.
Examples of relevant areas include:

- Observations of human impacts on, and responses to, hydrological change.
- Interactions of communities with local water resources.
- Hydrological models that include anthropogenic effects.
- Creation of databases describing hydrology in human-impacted systems.
- Data analysis and comparisons of human-water systems around the globe and especially in developing and emerging countries.
- Human interactions with hydrological extremes, i.e. floods and droughts, and water scarcity.
- The role of gender, age, and cultural background in the impacts of hydrological extremes (floods and droughts), risk perception, and during/after crises and emergencies.
- innovative modelling for exploring the interplay, feedback, and interactions between hydrological extremes and public and private adaptation actions;
- integration of models and observations for advancing knowledge on the human-water systems;
- new frameworks to support risk-based decision-making in case of multi-hazards;

Convener: Heidi Kreibich | Co-conveners: Anne Van Loon, Fuqiang Tian, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Tatiana Filatova, Maurizio MazzoleniECSECS
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 08:30–11:48 (CEST)
 
Room 3.29/30

Presentations: Thu, 26 May | Room 3.29/30

Chairpersons: Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Fuqiang Tian, Tatiana Filatova
Human-Water Systems and climate change
08:30–08:36
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EGU22-36
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Virtual presentation
Fuqiang Tian, Melissa Haeffner, Heidi Kreibich, Aditi Mukherji, Jing Wei, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Günter Blöschl

There has been increasing recognition that the global water crisis is due to lack of understanding of wider economic and socio-cultural perspectives, resulted from the intended and/or unintended consequences of co-evolution of coupled human-water systems. In light of such recognition, Panta Rhei Initiative (2013-2022) was proposed to focus on changes in both hydrology and society. Approaching end of this decade, this study present the synthesis of knowledge gained in our understanding of coevolution and prediction of coupled human-water systems. Content include five parts: (I) Motivation and Overview, (II) Theoretical Foundations and Methodological Approaches, (III) Synthesis of Work Done and Understanding Gained in Specific Application Areas, (IV) Panta Rhei Case Studies, (V) Grand Synthesis and Recommendations.

How to cite: Tian, F., Haeffner, M., Kreibich, H., Mukherji, A., Wei, J., Sivapalan, M., and Blöschl, G.: Coevolution and Prediction of Coupled Human-Water Systems: A Synthesis of Change in Hydrology and Society , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-36, 2022.

08:36–08:46
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EGU22-12216
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solicited
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Virtual presentation
María José Polo, Cyndi Vail, Gopal Penny, Thusdara Gunda, and Alberto Montanari

Impacts and trade-offs between society and hydrological processes cover a wide range of issues, for which climate, geography, environment, cultural context, economy, and society altogether result in largely different coevolution schemes and current scenarios. This work presents a selection of case studies addressing the Panta Rhei Decade’s goals and discussions, that cover representative examples to assess future challenges of sociohydrology to be included in the Panta Rhei Book results. As a follow-up of the work progress presented in previous conferences, we focus now on each storyline to highlight their contribution to the Panta Rhei decade’s work and impact on future reflections, and pathways.

Specifically, some similarities and major divergences are assessed between local cases across geography and topics in a preliminary attempt to identify the key conclusions of this paradigm and the most relevant sectors dealing with socio-hydrological processes now, and in the future. These results pave the line towards the final lessons learnt from this process, to be presented in the XXIst Scientific Assembly of the IAHS.

How to cite: Polo, M. J., Vail, C., Penny, G., Gunda, T., and Montanari, A.: Contribution of local examples of co-evolution of society and hydrology to address current and future challenges of sustainability in the context of the Panta Rhei Book, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12216, 2022.

08:46–08:52
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EGU22-11301
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Presentation form not yet defined
Stochastic modeling of coupled human-water networked communities
(withdrawn)
Leonardo Enrico Bertassello, Diogo Bolster, and Marc Müller
08:52–08:58
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EGU22-9459
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Riccardo Biella, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Luigia Brandimarte, and Maurizio Mazzoleni

The success of climate adaptation actions relies on the availability and quality of information, especially in climate-sensitive sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and river management. Over the years, researchers have highlighted how climate services providing such key information should focus on end-user needs to bridge the usefulness-usability gap. Thus, overcoming this dichotomy will enable the effective use of climate services in adaptation initiatives, especially at the local scale. In this study, we present the basis for a conceptual framework identifying the balancing and reinforcing feedbacks in a coupled human-climate system, with a focus on hydrological risks, i.e. floods and droughts. The analysis is based on system dynamics conceptualization and builds upon data from various living labs (i.e. case studies) across Europe. The framework is presented as a causal-loop diagram and emerging behaviors of the system are described using system archetypes. The proposed framework highlights the importance of understanding feedbacks between climate information and adaptation options when designing user-centered climate services. Moreover, it sheds a light on usefulness of system dynamics as a tool for informing the planning of effective adaptation actions while building resilience.

 

How to cite: Biella, R., Di Baldassarre, G., Brandimarte, L., and Mazzoleni, M.: Conceptualizing feedbacks between climate services and adaptation actions across various European contexts., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9459, 2022.

08:58–09:04
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EGU22-9025
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Mohammadreza Alizadeh and Jan Adamowski

At the local and sub-regional levels, human-water systems are bound by regional constraints that are influenced by connected internal politics associated with particular socioeconomic conditions. This implies that any multi-scale scenario framework must account for the many scales at which socioeconomic change will manifest. In this study, we developed a series of localized shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) by downscaling global SSPs as boundary conditions integrated with climate change pathways (RCPs) to construct a narrative scenario development process that incorporates both a multi-scale (top-down) and a bottom-up (co-production) approach. To obtain insight into human-water systems in developing countries, the study focused on the extensive irrigated portions of Pakistan's central-northeastern Rechna Doab watershed, which served as a case study for a typical multi-stakeholder system. Our developed localized narrative SSPs served as the basis for evaluating the probable consequences of socioeconomic and climatic change at the local level across a variety of socioeconomic possibilities. These estimates provide information on the likely future consequences of socioeconomic and climatic change and the performance of various adaptation measures. Additionally, the localized narratives are designed as a starting point for downscaling projections of critical processes and variables such as population increase and economic development. By analyzing the localized SSPs narratives using a regional integrated assessment model, significant future changes in these critical socioeconomic and environmental variables are predicted, assisting decision-makers in exploring and developing appropriate policy interventions and adaptation strategies. These estimates are used to model and quantify the local consequences of the human-water system on social and environmental issues (e.g., farm income, crop yields, water demands, and groundwater resource depletion). Our findings show that even with modest socioeconomic advances (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, and environmental consciousness), water security is likely to decline, and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) will exacerbate. The suggested framework makes it easier to establish future adaptation plans that take regional and local planning and socioeconomic factors into account.

How to cite: Alizadeh, M. and Adamowski, J.: Multi-scale Scenarios for Local Climate Change Policies , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9025, 2022.

09:04–09:10
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EGU22-4543
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Virtual presentation
David C. Finger

There is a reason why Iceland is frequently called the land of fire and ice. Located on the mid-Atlantic ridge in the North Atlantic Ocean, Iceland is frequently exposed to explosive volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, due to its geographic location cold Arctic winds from the North and the warm humid winds coming from the Gulf of Mexico collide. The particular geographic location is the reason why over 10% of the Island area is covered by glaciers, precipitation can exceed 10´000 mm a-1, and glacial flood can reach several 100’000 m3 s-1. Regardless of the arctic winds, the extreme precipitation, and the frequent eruption, the original Icelandic vegetation has developed a resilience to with sand almost any natural hazard. However, with the arrival of the first settler over a millennium ago Iceland has been subject to dramatic deforestation due to intense sheep and horse farming. These anthropogenic impacts have severely mitigated the resilience of the Icelandic vegetation, altering the erosion patterns and finally also impacting the natural water flow. The Rangárvellir area in southern Iceland is an ideal location to study the interaction of human impacts, natural hazards, and consequences for the natural water cycle. Deforestation and intensive farming have decreased the resilience of the local ecosystems, leading to severe land degradation and extensive soil erosion. Since the beginning of the 20th century, diverse restoration measures have been implemented across Rangárvellir. Long-term monitoring programs demonstrate how restoration can help mitigate hydrometeorological and volcanic risks, providing a representative example of nature-based solutions. For this purpose, we present a metadatabase (http://rangarvellir.ru.is/) providing an overview of previous and ongoing research on land restoration, land management, reforestation, hydro-meteorological monitoring, and vegetation mapping. All relevant past and ongoing research and restoration projects are described in order to demonstrate the importance of an all-inclusive landscape restoration approach. The study concludes by outlining the importance of nature-based solutions and highlights the interaction between research projects in the frame of restoration and land reclamation efforts.

How to cite: Finger, D. C.: Hydrology at its extreme: climate change, societal impacts and natural hazards in the land of fire and ice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4543, 2022.

Water ressources, availability and use
09:10–09:16
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EGU22-8511
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Irene Palazzoli, Alberto Montanari, and Serena Ceola

Human pressure on surface water is increasing globally, especially on river systems. Future scenarios of urban population growth anticipate an overexploitation of surface water resources in the proximity of cities, which in turn will produce environmental, social, and economic impacts whose effects are going to influence increasingly larger areas. Therefore, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of interaction between human settlements and surface water, to find a balance between urban planning and water management policies that ensure water conservation and ecosystem protection. In this study we assess the driving role of urban areas in the spatial distribution of surface water losses across the contiguous United States (CONUS). In particular, we analyze the frequency of occurrence of surface water loss as a function of distance from urban areas using remote sensing data and we define a distance decay model that reproduces the observed spatial behavior. We find that the frequency of surface water loss declines as the distance from urban areas increases and we successfully model this spatial trend with an exponential probability distribution function. Moreover, we observe distinct decay patterns of the frequency of occurrence of surface water loss associated to the main climatic conditions of the CONUS, as surface water losses are more concentrated around urban areas in regions with a temperate and continental climate, while they result to be more widespread over greater distances in regions with an arid climate.

How to cite: Palazzoli, I., Montanari, A., and Ceola, S.: Spatial distribution of surface water losses from urban areas across the contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8511, 2022.

09:16–09:22
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EGU22-9413
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Esther Brakkee, Marjolein van Huijgevoort, and Sija Stofberg

Climate change and socio-economic development are putting water resources under increasing pressure, even in what are so far seen as ‘water-rich’ countries. At a regional scale, the water resources present in groundwater, soil water and surface water are often used for various functions, including nature, agriculture and drinking water production. Local changes in water management or land cover can potentially affect all these functions. Therefore, ensuring a sustainable water availability requires an integrated understanding of the interactions in the water system. However, regional water systems, that often include a wide range of water pathways and functions, can be complex to grasp and time-intensive to study in detail. There is therefore a need for exploratory methods that provide a fast and comprehensive overview of the interactions in regional water systems. This provides a valuable first step to direct research and management efforts.  

In this study, we have developed an exploratory water system analysis method using a case study in the south of the Netherlands. The case study area supports groundwater-dependent nature areas, agriculture, drinking water production and urban land use, which may face increasing pressure in the future. Several adaptation measures have been proposed, including restoration of natural brook systems, enhancing groundwater recharge and changing extraction regimes. As a first step, we developed quantitative visual overviews of the water system under both average and dry conditions, using a combination of a groundwater model and field data. Next, we used simplified analytical functions to assess the potential effects of several proposed measures on water stores and fluxes in the water system. Together, these analyses provide an overview of the main system drivers and potential threats to water availability. In addition, they help to identify which potential solutions are promising for further exploration. The results can be used to guide further research and cooperation in the area towards a sustainable water system. In addition, the methods can be easily applied to other regions and scales.

How to cite: Brakkee, E., van Huijgevoort, M., and Stofberg, S.: Grasping water availability at regional scale: development of exploratory methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9413, 2022.

09:22–09:28
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EGU22-12451
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Presentation form not yet defined
Lessons from sociohydrological phenomena in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya
(withdrawn)
Pieter van Oel, Vincent Odongo, Francis Muthoni, Dawit Mulatu, and Charles Wamucii
09:28–09:34
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EGU22-1323
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On-site presentation
Ibrahim Mohammed, John Bolten, Nicholas Souter, Kashif Shaad, and Derek Vollmer

Uncertainties and indeterminate scope, divergent social values and stakeholder interests, and changing hydroclimatology in transboundary river basins are all factors that may complicate sustainable water resource management. To address such complex socio hydrological issues, we present an example of an integrated approach to assessing future sustainability challenges in their social, hydrological, and ecological dimensions using a case study from the Lower Mekong basin. Our study area here is the combined basin of the Se Kong, Se San, and Sre Pok (3S) rivers which deliver approximately 20% of flow to the Mekong River system. We used a mixed methods approach to analyze potential impacts of climate change on regional hydrology, the ability of dam operation rules to keep downstream flow within acceptable limits, and the present state of water governance in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Our results suggest that future river flows in the 3S river system could move closer to natural (i.e. pre-development) conditions during the dry season and experience increased floods during the wet season. This anticipated new flow regime in the 3S region would require a shift in the current dam operations, from maintaining minimum flows to reducing flood hazards. Moreover, our Governance and Stakeholders survey assessment results revealed that existing water governance systems in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are ill-prepared to address such anticipated future water resource management problems. Our results indicate that the solution space for addressing these complex issues in the 3S river basins will be highly constrained unless major deficiencies in transboundary water governance, strategic planning, financial capacity, information sharing, and law enforcement are remedied in the next decade. This work is part of an ongoing research partnership between the National Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA) and the Conservation International (CI) dedicated to improving natural resources assessment for conservation and sustainable management.

How to cite: Mohammed, I., Bolten, J., Souter, N., Shaad, K., and Vollmer, D.: Assessment of water resources conservation and sustainable management strategies in the Lower Mekong River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1323, 2022.

09:34–09:40
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EGU22-1522
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Myriam Soutif--Bellenger, Guillaume Thirel, Olivier Therond, and Jean Villerd

The estimation of irrigation amounts and timings is crucial for the design of water management strategies at the regional scale. However, simplified modelling approaches are often preferred even though very complex and high-accuracy crop models or agent-based models exist. In this study, we develop a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impacts of simplifications and hypotheses in irrigation modelling. For this, different simple modelling approaches based on the CropWat model were compared to a multi-agent based approach (Maelia), which served as a benchmark. To make an in-depth comparison between simulations, several indicators characterizing daily simulated irrigation were calculated and a decomposition of variance was carried out to measure impacts of diverse factors on irrigation. Applied over a downstream portion of the Aveyron River (southern France), the sensitivity analysis shows a high variability between simulations in function of modelling assumptions. It also shows that several simplifying approaches were able to reproduce the high-accuracy model estimation of irrigation. Decisive variation factors we identified are rules of triggering and quantification of daily irrigation, irrigation period definition and evapotranspiration estimation. Recommendations to take into account highlighted variability linked to farmers’ irrigation practices are introduced in this work, consisting in a combining a set of irrigation models. In function of advancement, a complete integrated agro-hydrologic modelling chain might be presented.

How to cite: Soutif--Bellenger, M., Thirel, G., Therond, O., and Villerd, J.: How much can we simplify irrigation in an integrated modelling purpose? A case study in southern France, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1522, 2022.

09:40–09:46
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EGU22-7834
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Virtual presentation
Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Jacopo Dari, Luca Brocca, Víctor Altés, Josep M. Villar, Giovanni Paolini, Maria José Escorihuela, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, and Diane Tzanos

Irrigated agriculture plays an important role in the continental water and energy cycles of the basins where it is present. Land-Surface models (LSM) can be used to study and quantify the impact of anthropic processes on the continental water cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to have good quality forcing and physiographic data, including a correct representation of agricultural covers, irrigation methods and actual irrigated areas. 

This work presents four datasets, at a spatial resolution of 1 km, that have been prepared to simulate irrigation-related processes using a LSM over the Ebro basin, the largest Mediterranean Spanish basin, where irrigated agriculture has a large impact on the water cycle. These datasets are: (1) a land cover map, (2) an actual irrigated areas map, (3) a map of irrigation methods per area, (4) and a meteorological forcing dataset.

The most recent version of the ISBA LSM, in SURFEX v9, contains an improved irrigation scheme (Druel et al., 2021), which requires the also recent ECOCLIMAP-SG land cover map (Druel et al., 2021). We validated ECOCLIMAP-SG over the Ebro basin, using SIGPAC data (Agricultural Plot Geographic Information System) provided by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The results showed low F1-score values, indicating a poor representation of agricultural covers. The comparison also showed that ECOCLIMAP-SG overestimated the irrigated surface. Therefore, it was decided to improve the ECOCLIMAP-SG Land Cover Map and create a new map of actual irrigated areas over this basin.

For the improved cover map, SIGPAC information was used. Each agricultural plot was classified, assigning to the informed cultivated species its correspondent ECOCLIMAP-SG cover and replacing it in the original map. The actual irrigated areas map was elaborated combining SIGPAC information of plots prepared for irrigation with data from LAI increments computed for two Summer days (20/08/2017 and 10/08/2019) by LDAS-Monde (Albergel et al. 2017). LDAS-Monde is a tool based on SURFEX able to assimilate satellite-derived LAI from the Copernicus Global Land service in ISBA. The irrigation method map was generated using a simple approach. The irrigation districts were classified between traditional and modernized. In traditional areas, the irrigation method was set to surface irrigation. In modernized areas, plots with herbaceous crops and trees were assigned to sprinkler and drip irrigation respectively. 

In addition, a new version of the SAFRAN meteorological forcing (Vidal et al. 2010, Quintana-Seguí et al, 2017), was developed. For this project, observations from two different sources (Spanish Meteorological State Agency and Catalan Meteorological Survey) were obtained, together with ERA5 data, which is used as first guess (for all variables except Precipitation). SAFRAN has been used to generate forcing data for Precipitation, Temperature, Wind Speed and Relative Humidity.  

The forcing dataset sensitivity has been tested by comparing two SURFEX simulations performed using the new SAFRAN forcing dataset, one with the original ECOCLIMAP-SG maps and another one using the new land cover, actual irrigated areas, and irrigation methods maps.

This work is a contribution to the LIAISE campaign, through the IDEWA project (PCI2020-112043).

How to cite: Barella-Ortiz, A., Quintana-Seguí, P., Dari, J., Brocca, L., Altés, V., Villar, J. M., Paolini, G., Escorihuela, M. J., Bonan, B., Calvet, J.-C., and Tzanos, D.: Improved SAFRAN forcing and ECOCLIMAP-SG datasets to simulate irrigation over the Ebro basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7834, 2022.

09:46–09:52
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EGU22-2333
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Virtual presentation
Marjolein van Huijgevoort, Gijsbert Cirkel, and Ruud Bartholomeus

Calculating the drawdown of groundwater abstractions for drinking water is usually done considering the current land use and regional drainage characteristics. However, many drinking water abstractions already exist for several decades and abstracted volumes have increased over time. In the Netherlands, especially in the more elevated parts of the country, the drainage characteristics were also significantly altered to prevent water logging and to optimize the water management for agricultural use, often after establishment of the groundwater abstraction site. These changes were intended to lower the phreatic groundwater levels to prevent waterlogging, but unintendedly also made the regions more vulnerable to drought. The question is whether groundwater abstractions for groundwater would have a similar impact in the former historic hydrological context and whether restoring the system to this state would ameliorate current drought problems.

In this study we investigated whether a drinking water abstraction would have the same drawdown if the regional drainage characteristics would not have been altered and whether restoring the historic situation would decrease drought impacts. First, a literature study was conducted to understand the changes to the drainage system over time. These changes were then implemented in a regional groundwater model (based on Modflow) for a conceptual region, representative for the eastern part of the Netherlands. Results from both the literature study and the groundwater model indicated that changes in the drainage system lowered the groundwater levels by tens of centimetres (differences ranged from 20 to 100 cm). Drawdown from the drinking water abstraction was larger in the historical situation than in the current situation, even though groundwater levels were higher. In the historical situation less reduction in transpiration occurred, leading to a lower recharge of the groundwater and thus a larger drawdown. However, when irrigation was applied, this effect was not found.  This implied that a correct estimate of groundwater recharge is crucial to calculate drawdown from abstractions. Recharge depends on actual evapotranspiration, of which the conceptualization in regional models could be improved. Returning the drainage system to the historical situation leads to higher groundwater levels, thereby reducing the drought impact, but also increasing the risk of oxygen stress in crops. More research with regard to the impact on crop yields is needed on local scale, before measures to mitigate drought impacts can be taken.

How to cite: van Huijgevoort, M., Cirkel, G., and Bartholomeus, R.: Effects of historic changes in regional drainage characteristics on the drawdown of groundwater abstractions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2333, 2022.

09:52–09:58
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EGU22-5096
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Massimo Nespoli, Nicola Cenni, Maria Elina Belardinelli, and Marco Marcaccio

The Po Plain (Northern Italy) has largely subsided due to natural processes and human activities. In particular, in order to reduce subsidence, in the Bologna metropolitan area a politic decision in 2010, imposed a significant reduction of civil water supply from groundwater withdrawal wells. The study area is characterized by an excellent monitoring activity which provides a good spatial and temporal distribution of data coming from continuous GNSS sites, piezometers and rain gauges.

In the present work we analyze both GNSS and piezometric data by means of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results of the analysis are then compared with the rainfall time series measured by rain gauges. Thanks to the PCA analysis we can identify: i) a clear increase in the water level following the withdrawal decrease started in 2010 and ii) an anthropic induced surface displacement, which is smaller in magnitude than that induced by rainfall variations. Without the PCA analysis, such a small, but still significant, anthropic effect on vertical displacements would have remained hidden in the raw time series.

Our analysis reveals a decrease of about 4 mm/y of vertical velocity in some GNSS sites closest the withdrawal wells. We also found that on large time scales (> 1 month), the vertical displacement induced by rainfall strongly depends on the geological setting: in the mountains a water level increase causes subsidence (elastic response), whereas in the Po Plain it causes uplift (poro-elastic response). Thanks to the PCA analyses, the combined observations of different kind of instruments (GNSS, piezometers and rain gauges) and a basic knowledge of the geological context, we can correctly identify both the anthropic and natural signals on the data.

How to cite: Nespoli, M., Cenni, N., Belardinelli, M. E., and Marcaccio, M.: Detecting natural and anthropic effects on displacements and water level changes: a combined observation from rain gauges, piezometers and CGNSS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5096, 2022.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Heidi Kreibich, Anne Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni
Human-Flood Systems
10:20–10:26
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EGU22-466
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ECS
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Highlight
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Presentation form not yet defined
Exploring the relation between changes in human influence and annual maximum flood extent at the global level
(withdrawn)
Maurizio Mazzoleni, Francesco Dottori, Hannah L. Cloke, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
10:26–10:36
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EGU22-857
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ECS
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Lars Tierolf, Toon Haer, Jens de Bruijn, Wouter Botzen, Lena Reimann, Marijn Ton, and Jeroen Aerts

Sea-level rise (SLR) and socioeconomic trends are increasing the population and assets exposed to extreme coastal flood events in the coming decades. People residing in communities experiencing this increase in coastal flood risk may choose to stay, to stay and adapt, or to migrate towards safer areas. However, these migration decisions are influenced by many socio- economic and environmental factors. For example, current assessments of SLR adaptation and migration do often not address risk perceptions of residents related to different environmental risks, such as flooding and erosion. These factors influence adaptation decisions, and thus exposure and vulnerability. In this study, we aim to improve the representation of the dynamics of adaptive behavior of coastal communities in flood risk assessment by including human behavior and its effect on adaptation decisions, in face of SLR. Therefore, we develop an agent-based model grounded in subjective expected utility theory and simulate adaptation- and migration decisions of households facing coastal flood risk in France between 19xx and 2020. The model is empirically calibrated using survey data on flood risk perception and people’s willingness to implement adaptation measures. Then, we use socio-demographic projections to estimate future changes (2020-2080) in demographic composition, and apply the model to simulate coastal adaptation. The agent-based model presented in this study functions as a platform for further development of 1) more realistic decision models and 2) global modelling approaches of both coastal adaptation and migration under projections of future development.

How to cite: Tierolf, L., Haer, T., de Bruijn, J., Botzen, W., Reimann, L., Ton, M., and Aerts, J.: COASTMOVE: A global agent-based model of adaptation and migration decisions in face of sea level rise, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-857, 2022.

10:36–10:42
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EGU22-8170
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Virtual presentation
Yus Budiyono, Dian Nuraini Melati, Puspa Khaerani, Diyah Krisna Yuliana, Ritha Riyandari, Bondan Fiqi Riyalda, and Freek Colombijn

Northern Java coasts of Indonesia is dominated by unconsolidated Holocene alluvial deposits. Anthropogenic stresses on the area has lead to land subsidence at various rate relate to the deposition systems. This paper review reports on land subsidence in the area using the formal phrase as well as terms related to the phenomenons appeared in coastal communities. We found the formal phrase appeared decades after coastal communities has considered the impact without knowing the physical phenomenon. In addition to that, research agencies have been focusing on monitoring while national government bodies focused on mitigation infrastructures. To fill in the gap, we suggest flood risk study will help the efforts to bridge both activities. This will help local and national government to prioritize activities in to overcome negative impact of land subsidence.

How to cite: Budiyono, Y., Melati, D. N., Khaerani, P., Yuliana, D. K., Riyandari, R., Riyalda, B. F., and Colombijn, F.: Review on land subsidence and socio-hydrology of northern Java, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8170, 2022.

10:42–10:48
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EGU22-6604
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On-site presentation
Maria Carmen Llasat, Blanca Aznar, Laura Esbrí, Tomeu Rigo, Oriol Grima, and Heidi Kreibich

The city of Barcelona is severely affected by pluvial floods, for which the risk management can be further improved. To provide essential information about pluvial flood risk we compare two events that occurred in 1995 and 2018 and put these into context of all convective precipitation events between 2013 and 2018 in Barcelona. The objective is to identify the main drivers of pluvial flood impact and the most flood prone areas. These results will help to further improve pluvial flood risk management in Barcelona, e.g. by developing targeted preparedness and empowerment campaigns.

The event comparison followed the paired event approach (Kreibich et al. 2017). In the 1995 event, the surface runoff of the streets caused a fatality in the Eixample quartier, a total of 2,500 calls were registered to the emergency services, 128,000 subscribers suffered cuts of light, 2 blocks of houses were evacuated, and numerous low floors were flooded.  33.6 Million €2018 were paid by the national insurance company, CCS, to compensate insured losses in Barcelona. The 1995 episode marked a turning point in the development of the sewerage in the city. Although the maximum 5-min intensity in the 1995 event was 235 mm/h in front of 211 mm/h in the 2018 event, the maximum rainfall recorded in 20 min (155,4 mm/h versus 169,8 mm/h, respectively) and 60 min (78,6 mm/h versus 88,1 mm/h), as well as the “average water volume precipitated over the city” (376,5 m3 versus 457,1 m3) was superior in the second event. However, in the 2018 event, only 294 emergency phone calls were received, mainly due to flooding of low plants and basements, water leaks or fallen trees; and 3.5 Million €2018 were paid by the CCS. This analysis shows the effectiveness of the mitigation measures taken in the city after the 1995 flood event that have diminished the vulnerability. The analysis of the 207 convective pluvial events registered by the city's drainage network between 2013 and 2018, with a focus on the 58 events for which radar images are available (Esbrí et al., 2021) provides information on the city quartiers which are most endangered by pluvial floods. Conclusion shows that the structural and non-structural improvements applied in Barcelona are a good example for other cities with similar characteristics, although the improvement in awareness, empowerment and communication with the population is still pending, mainly in the most affected quartiers of the city.

This work has been done in the framework of the I-CHANGE (H2020-2020 Prop.101037193) European project and the C3-RiskMed (PID2020-113638RB-C22) research project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.

References.

Kreibich, H., S. Vorogushyn, J.C.J.H. et al. 2017. Adaptation to flood risk – results of international paired flood event studies. Special collection “Avoiding Disasters: Strengthening Societal Resilience to Natural Hazards” in the journal Earth’s Future. Earth’s Future,5,953–965, doi:10.1002/2017EF000606.

Esbrí, L.; Rigo, T.; Llasat, M.C.; Aznar, B. Identifying Storm Hotspots and the Most Unsettled Areas in Barcelona by Analysing Significant Rainfall Episodes from 2013 to 2018. Water 2021, 13, 1730. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13131730.

How to cite: Llasat, M. C., Aznar, B., Esbrí, L., Rigo, T., Grima, O., and Kreibich, H.: A comparative analysis between two pluvial flood events in Barcelona (Spain).  An example of a success story , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6604, 2022.

10:48–10:54
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EGU22-6759
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Chang Liu, Akiyuki Kawasaki, and Tomoko Shiroyama

As the longest river in Asia, the Yangtze River has shown its impact on human societies with floods recorded since 12th century. In 1931, the Yangtze River has manifested its force again with one of the deadliest floods ever recorded in Chinese history, causing 422,499 deaths, damages to more than 25.2 million people and 58.7 billion m2 farmland. Similar flood occurred again in 1954, resulting in 31,762 deaths, damages to 18.9 million people and 31.7 billion m2 farmland. Researches have shown that 1954 flood being larger and higher compared to 1931 flood. However, it is still unclear for what reason that a more severe flood leading to less damage. Was it because of the change of residents’ interactions and for what extent had it affected the damage? To answer this question, first, we constructed a conceptual framework of 1930s and 1950s agricultural society. From which drastic changes has been detected (e.g., increase of absentee landlords, land reform) and the residents’ interactions with floods have been analyzed. Then, we reconstructed the flood inundation process of 1931 and 1954 floods with gauged rainfall dataset. After referring to the investigation report, the inundation information was applied to re-estimate the flood damage on farmland, houses, and residents. With the simulation and modification, we found that the inundated farmland of 1931 is about 83% more than former, indicating a much more severe influence on residents’ lives than we used to think. On the contrary, the total increase of influence farmland in 1954 is around 50% after modification, suggesting a relative success in reducing flood damage. To quantitatively explain it, the countermeasures during 1954 flood were estimated, showing that the reinforcement of levees in 1950s was more effective in reducing inundation area of 7%, while the construction of detention basins accounted for only 2%. Such results revealed that the countermeasures against 1954 flood being more successful than 1931. Moreover, the changes of agricultural interactions with floods have also been estimated using the potential crop production (PCP), indicating an improvement in disaster mitigation in 1954. Our results demonstrate how society changes are likely to affect the response towards natural hazards, the knowledge and method of which are expected to be applicable to many other regions and times.

How to cite: Liu, C., Kawasaki, A., and Shiroyama, T.: The society interactions with floods in the modern Chinese history: a comparison between 1931 and 1954 floods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6759, 2022.

10:54–11:00
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EGU22-2642
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Flood Risk Evaluation in Lebanon Based on Newspaper Records
(withdrawn)
Rouya Hdeib, Chadi Abdallah, François Colin, and Roger Moussa
11:00–11:06
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EGU22-12234
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Virtual presentation
Inna Krylenko, Vitaly Belikov, Pavel Golovlyov, Vitaly Surkov, Elena Zakharova, and Alexander Zavadskii

Linear infrastructure such as roads, bridge crossings, protective dams cause significant changes of the floodplains topography and flow characteristics. To estimate the anthropogenic impact on the changing of inundation characteristics we applied two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approach. The study is focused on wide populated floodplains areas of the Ob River near Surgut city (Western Siberia, Russia), Lena River near Yakutsk city (Eastern Siberia), Amur/Zeya Rivers near Blagoveshchensk (Far East). STREAM_2D software (authors V. Belikov et al.), which is based on the numerical solution of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations on a hybrid curvilinear quadrangular and rectangular mesh, and includes sediment transport and ice modules, was used for the simulations. Detailed topography and bathymetry data, obtained as results of field surveys, were used for model setup. All linear infrastructure in river channels and floodplains, including dams, cities embankments, existing and under construction bridges, road embankments were taken into account in the model grid and relief. Second version of the model relief was constructed excluding infrastructure. Calibration and verification of the model were performed for modern conditions using data of field surveys and data of gauging stations. Additional verification of simulated flooded areas and the water level in ungauged reaches was done using high resolution satellite optical images and satellite altimetry measurements. For impact analysys two modeling scenarios were considered for each key area: modern conditions of flow with all infrastructure and natural conditions without any constructions. More pronounced effect of the infrastructure on the flooding zones was identified for the floodplains of Amur/Zeya Rivers near Blagoveshchensk and Heihe cities: the area of flooding in modern conditions decreased by 10%, which led to an increase in the average depth of flooding by 10%, and the average flow velocity in the modeling area by 2-5%. Significant backwater effects due to linear infrastructure on the floodplains were identified for the Ob River, water levels upstream the existing bridge transect can rise more than 0.5m and observed at a distance of more than 30 km.

The numerical experiments were designed within the framework of the Governmental Order to Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, subject no FMWZ-2022-0001. The Ob River floodplain model was adopted with the financial support of RSF № 22-27-00633.

How to cite: Krylenko, I., Belikov, V., Golovlyov, P., Surkov, V., Zakharova, E., and Zavadskii, A.: Impact of linear infrastructure on floodplains on inundation characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12234, 2022.

Human-Drought Systems
11:06–11:12
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EGU22-12594
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ECS
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Elise Jonsson, Sara Lindersson, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Dams and reservoirs can have a wide range of impacts on local hydrology, for instance affecting soil moisture, water table, vegetation and modifying the frequency, severity and intensity of floods and droughts. In this work, we are quantifying trends in human-modified droughts (frequency, severity and intensity) in the wake of reservoir formation. Drought trends are compared before and after reservoir formation, using paired catchments for control.
 
We perform the analysis on a global level for large reservoirs, using satellite data of surface water changes and a dataset of georeferenced dams to determine the reservoir ages. We also include the impact of smaller reservoirs for a number of chosen case studies around the globe. The overarching goal of this research is to improve our understanding of the human impact on hydrological droughts across the world. Based on our results, we also discuss the potential impact of future dam constructions, particularly in developing countries where such developments are ramping up.

How to cite: Jonsson, E., Lindersson, S., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Global impacts of dams and reservoirs on hydrological droughts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12594, 2022.

11:12–11:18
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EGU22-458
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On-site presentation
Marthe Wens, Anne Van Loon, Ted Veldkamp, Moses Mwangi, and Jeroen Aerts

The effectiveness of governmental disaster risk reduction policies in East Africa is influenced by how smallholder farmers react to droughts and adopt drought adaptation measures. In recent research on socio-hydrological feedbacks and the role of farmers’ adaptive behaviour in drought management, agent-based models (ABM) were found to be powerful tools. In this study, we developed an innovative agent-based drought risk model (ADOPT) that explicitly takes into account the two-way relationship between heterogenous individual agricultural adaptation decisions and the agro-hydrological system (modelled using AquacropOS). ADOPT is able to evaluate the effect of drought risk policies on the dynamics of poverty, food security and relief needs, and was applied to a case in Kenya.

First, we conducted a multi-method data survey among stakeholders and households in semiarid Kenya to better understand the drivers and barriers, such as knowledge of adaptation measures, fear of droughts, and perceived vulnerability, that determine the adoption of drought adaptation measures in this context. This information was used to calibrate the decision rules in ADOPT. We then applied ADOPT to simulate how drought policy interventions, such as improving extension services, improving early-warning systems, distributing ex-ante rather than ex-post cash transfers, and widening access to credit markets, influence the drought risk and adaptation of smallholders. We found that a holistic approach, including all these measures combined, can reduce the poverty rate with 66%, food insecurity with 70%, and aid needs with 75%, on average over six potential future climate scenarios.

How to cite: Wens, M., Van Loon, A., Veldkamp, T., Mwangi, M., and Aerts, J.: Assessing smallholder drought risk dynamics under climate change and government policies , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-458, 2022.

11:18–11:24
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EGU22-11981
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On-site presentation
Brunella Bonaccorso, Iolanda Borzì, Beatrice Monteleone, and Mario Martina

Drought is the natural hazard producing the most significant impacts on the agricultural sector. In the Mediterranean area, drought-related losses were estimated at approximately 9€ billion/year and this value is going to increase in future climate change scenarios. In this context, implementing proper risk reduction strategies and effective water resources management is fundamental in coping with drought-related water crises.

In this study, a survey has been proposed to farmers of the Po Valley (Northern Italy), in order to identify past drought and heatwaves events that hit their cultivations and to know the strategies implemented to cope with those events.

Farmers were asked to answer questions about the use of irrigation during past droughts and heatwaves, the preferred irrigation strategies during water crises (i.e., irrigate at night, irrigate a reduced area to full irrigation, crop prioritization, etc), the decisional criteria they adopted to establish when to start irrigation during a drought and the availability of insurance coverage.

Past droughts have been identified using the Standardized Precipitation and Evaponstrspiration Index (SPEI) and compared with the ones identified through the survey, highlighting two main drought events: the first one occurred in June 2003 and the other one in August 2019. This last event has been analysed in detail. Survey’s results reveal that, even if the 2003 event was more severe than that one in 2019, since all the farmers decided to irrigate their cultures during the 2003 drought, yield reduction was less than in 2019, when half of the farmers decided to not irrigate their crops during the drought event. In particular, the mean yield reduction for farmers who irrigated their crops during drought events was 35% less than for those who decided to not irrigate.

It was also found that droughts occurring in different plant growth stages have caused very different economic damages in terms of yield reduction, the amount of water resources allocated, and thus the irrigation expenses.

Regarding insurance coverage and the corresponding farmers’ grade of satisfaction, the survey’s responses revealed that farmers who applied irrigation didn’t acquire insurance coverages, and farmers who haven’t used irrigation trusted more on insurance.

How to cite: Bonaccorso, B., Borzì, I., Monteleone, B., and Martina, M.: A survey-based evaluation of farmers’ drought risk reduction strategies in the Po Valley (Northern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11981, 2022.

Water management and quality
11:24–11:30
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EGU22-5577
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On-site presentation
Ana Mijic, Leyang Liu, Jimmy O'Keeffe, Barnaby Dobson, and Kwok Pan Chun

Sustainable development is becoming increasingly urgent in the post-COVID recovery and climate crisis era. Despite this need, the water management scientific community is still deciding how to comprehensively represent and assess the role of humans within the hydrological cycle. An explanation may be found in numerous examples where water managers are often challenged when their decisions, policies, and interventions lead to a range of unintended consequences that cause increased pressures on the environment, which have been described by socio-hydrological paradoxes. If the paradoxes are seen as the main obstacles hindering sustainable development in the context of water management, then investigating their mechanisms and understanding logic may help us to reveal unintended system responses and define guiding principles critical for designing robust and sustainable water management plans. We analyse the socio-hydrological paradoxes from a systems perspective and assume that water management decisions and plans developed adopting a linear thinking and goals-focused approach are likely to neglect consequential effects which occur throughout the wider system. This definition enables us to rename the phenomena into water management paradoxes, which might be fundamentally related to systems’ complexity and unexpected behaviour arising from internal feedbacks along with external driving forces that generate nonlinear outcomes which are inconsistent with the expected results or responses from inputs and actions within the system.

To find solutions for the water management paradoxes, we hypothesise that they can be described in the context of three feedback mechanisms, which define the purpose of systems water management (SYWM) as coordination of development and water infrastructure with environmental management to improve the quality of life. We argue that the lack of consideration, integration and coordination of the SYWM meta-model loops will result in one of the water management paradoxes. As a solution, we propose three paradox archetypes that form the basis for guiding principles for systems water management. We suggest that environmental capacity indicators should be used in whole-system performance evaluation. The meta-model emphasises the need to better understand the baseline and development scenarios in the context of water neutrality, which is crucial for informing development decisions, including trade-offs in resource and infrastructure planning and operation. We encourage the use of a SYWM meta-model and proposed principles as a guide for analysing, modelling, and assessing human-water systems, thus creating an evidence base of case studies to demonstrate the meta-model’s applicability to solving water management paradoxes. In doing so, we hope to move towards the design of water systems that will support post-COVID recovery and enable long-term sustainable development.

 

How to cite: Mijic, A., Liu, L., O'Keeffe, J., Dobson, B., and Chun, K. P.: Solving water management paradoxes requires a systems meta-model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5577, 2022.

11:30–11:36
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EGU22-6497
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Esmee van de Ridder, Louise Cavalcante, Pieter van Oel, Art Dewulf, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, David Walker, and Eduardo Martins

Water scarcity and drought are sustainability issues that cut across borders and different scales and levels of organizations and cannot be designated to one governmental authority. Due to hydrological droughts in semi-arid Northeast Brazil, the region deals with water scarcity. In the case of Ceará state, water is stored in multiple reservoirs as part of a water supply system and is managed from different levels of organization. These are considered governance scales that include state level-, regional level- and municipal level institutions, local level communities, and individual households. Water management in Ceará is an example of how polycentric governance brings a multifold of governmental and non-governmental actors together for the management of public goods in the society, and therefore cross-scale and cross-level interactions are inevitable. However, a variety of multiple challenges of contradictory water policies, diverse and varying levels of water users and multiple overlapping governance systems and organizations in combination with resource depletion make equitable water allocation challenging in Ceará. For this reason, this research aims to examine the scale mismatches in the water management processes and level misalignments of different governance levels and understand the influences of multiple governance systems on collectively managing water for equal water allocation. The following research question is used: What are the scale mismatches in water management and the misalignments of levels in water governance in Ceará state, and how have these affected the equitable access to water by different groups?

A polycentric governance lens is used to understand the interplay and influences of multiple water governance systems with competitive and cooperative relationships over water resources. We analyzed the multiple scale challenges in water management in the Banabuiú basin in the state of Ceará, using minutes from official water committee meetings, and qualitative data from interviews conducted with smallholder farmers, field technicians, civil servants and researchers in November and December 2021.

Literature research and fieldwork interviews in Ceará provided insights into user conflicts and mismatches across varying scales and levels. Our results show that, at river basin levels, e.g., networks of reservoirs and the river basin of Banabuiú, conflicts of prioritization between small-scale farmers and urban water users occur when the metropolitan area of Fortaleza is prioritized. Prioritization of the metropolitan region has been shown to result in limited and non-participatory decision-making, lack of information sharing and restrictions for irrigated farmers at the local scale. At the local scale, state interference in water management is in some cases not appropriate to the local context or in accordance with local knowledge. These scale mismatches occur due to multiple types of local water management, lack of responsibility for the management of monitored and unmonitored reservoirs, and various overlapping assisting agencies at the community level. The cross-scale interactions and conflicts in water management systems highlight the interdependencies between stakeholders and scale challenges in socio-hydrological systems. 

 

How to cite: van de Ridder, E., Cavalcante, L., van Oel, P., Dewulf, A., Kchouk, S., Ribeiro Neto, G., Walker, D., and Martins, E.: Polycentric governance and scale challenges in water management in the semi-arid river basin of Banabuiú, Ceará, Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6497, 2022.

11:36–11:42
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EGU22-5520
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Sally Rangecroft, Rosa Maria Dextre, Isabel Richter, Claire Kelly, Cecilia Turin, Beatriz Fuentealba, Claudia V. Grados Bueno, Mirtha Camacho Hernández, Sergio Morera, John Martin, Adam Guy, and Caroline Clason

Water quality is an integral part of water security, but water quality itself is complex, due to its multifaceted nature. Measuring the physico-chemical indicators for water quality (e.g. pH, turbidity, heavy metal content) can provide an objective picture of water health, but it does not provide information on how it integrates and expresses the human perspective. Perceptual information and local ecological knowledge on water quality can help to understand the usability of water and support better conservation strategies. Therefore, the aims of the Nuestro Rio project were to investigate local perceptions of water quality in the upper Santa River basin, Peru. Walking interviews (n = 99) were conducted in the field between July-August 2021 to assess community members perceptions of their local rivers and streams. Through qualitative data analysis in two rural communities in the glaciated Santa River basin, we collected local perspectives on good and poor water quality, identified some of the key water concerns of the population, and explored the importance of emotions for determining water quality perceptions. Overall water quality perspectives differed within, and between, the two communities. Yet, it was possible to identify several characteristics and concerns that the population has been perceiving in recent years, as well as their causes, both natural and anthropogenic. Both communities felt the main cause of poor water quality was pollution due to the presence of minerals in the water, “invisible” aspects of water quality. We found that local perceptions on water quality also depend on water use as it has an important effect on local organisation. Emotions, on the other hand, reflect the population’s concern, fear, anger, and even frustration, when perceiving poor water quality, and happiness, trust, and even affection, when perceiving good water quality. More inclusive science that asks people what they observe, think and feel about the quality of their rivers and water can help provide a much deeper contextual understanding (e.g. useability of water, changes over time, traditional ecological knowledge) of local dynamic human-water systems, and improve science communication and policy implementation.

How to cite: Rangecroft, S., Dextre, R. M., Richter, I., Kelly, C., Turin, C., Fuentealba, B., Grados Bueno, C. V., Camacho Hernández, M., Morera, S., Martin, J., Guy, A., and Clason, C.: Exploring local perceptions of water quality in the upper Santa River, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5520, 2022.

11:42–11:48
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EGU22-12615
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Poornima Nagesh, Rudrani Gajraj, Josef Eitzinger, and Stefan C. Dekker

Agricultural use of pesticides helps control a range of pests and diseases that threaten crops, thereby avoiding yield losses and improving the quality of the food produced. However, pesticides applied on agricultural fields dissipate with time. The export of pesticides and their transformation products after application from the agricultural fields threatens the water quality of aquatic systems in many world regions.

Climate change is further expected to intensify pest pressures and potential pesticide use by affecting agriculture in many ways. Changing climatic conditions can increase pesticide leaching due to increased and frequent rainfall, higher degradation rates, or higher temperatures or soil moisture contents. The indirect effects are changes in land use, the timing of crop cultivation, selection of other crop types, new pests and changed pest behaviour, etc. Additionally, several socio-economic factors influence pesticide use at the farm and national level, including regulation and legislation, economy, technology and crop characteristics. In order to better understand the pesticide risk to surface waters in the future, we aim to understand the influence of both climate and socio-economic change on pesticide use and fate.

Various catchment-scale models are available to assess pesticides and their impacts on water bodies. However, most modelling approaches solely concentrate on the total amount or concentration of pesticide exported from a catchment and do not necessarily analyse the future change of pesticide and transformation products. We propose an integrated modelling framework to answer the research questions: What are the current significant climate and socio-economic drivers influencing pesticide use and emissions? How can climate change influence pesticide and transformation products emission trends? How will socio-economic change influence pesticide emissions?

The integrated modelling framework helps to include adapting agricultural production to climatic (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and socio-economic drivers (e.g., land use, crop type, pesticide regulation) and quantifying pesticide emissions with the Zin-AgriTRA pesticide fate model. The ZIN-AgriTra is a catchment scale reactive transport model which can simulate agrochemical and transformation products exported from agricultural catchments. We use the Eur-Agri-SSP scenarios that extend and enrich the basic Shared Socio-economic Pathways with a regional and sectoral component on agriculture to explain the socio-economic change and climate projections for Representative concentration pathways to adopt climate change scenarios.

The integrated modelling framework links the future scenario results from independent, standalone models that present crop rotation, land use, pesticide regulation and climate to the pesticide fate model (Zin-AgriTRA). The framework is applied to an agricultural catchment in Burgenland, Austria, to quantify pesticide pollution under future climate and socio-economic change up to 2050.

 

How to cite: Nagesh, P., Gajraj, R., Eitzinger, J., and C. Dekker, S.: Modelling the impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on pesticide use and fate, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12615, 2022.