HS4.4

EDI
Operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards and climate emergency: challenges and innovations
Co-organized by NH1
Convener: Michael Cranston | Co-conveners: Céline Cattoën-Gilbert, Lydia CumiskeyECSECS, Ilias Pechlivanidis

This interactive session aims to bridge the gap between science and practice in operational forecasting for different climate and water-related natural hazards including their dynamics and interdependencies. Operational (early) warning systems are the result of progress and innovations in the science of forecasting. New opportunities have risen in physically based modelling, coupling meteorological and hydrological forecasts, ensemble forecasting, impact-based forecasting and real time control. Often, the sharing of knowledge and experience about developments are limited to the particular field (e.g. flood forecasting or landslide warnings) for which the operational system is used. Increasingly, humanitarian, disaster risk management and climate adaptation practitioners are using forecasts and warning information to enable anticipatory/ early action that saves lives and livelihoods. It is important to understand their needs, their decision-making process and facilitate their involvement in forecasting and warning design and implementation (co-development).

The focus of this session will be on bringing the expertise from different fields together as well as exploring differences, similarities, problems and solutions between forecasting systems for varying hazards including climate emergency. Real-world case studies of system implementations - configured at local, regional, national, continental and global scales - will be presented, including trans-boundary issues. An operational warning system can include, for example, monitoring of data, analysing data, making and visualizing forecasts, giving warning signals and suggesting early action and response measures.

Contributions are welcome from both scientists and practitioners who are involved in developing and using operational forecasting and/or management systems for climate and water-related hazards, such as flood, drought, tsunami, landslide, hurricane, hydropower, pollution etc. We also welcome contributions from early career practitioners and scientists.