HS4.6

EDI
From sub-seasonal forecasting to climate projections: predicting water availability and servicing water sectors
Convener: Louise ArnalECSECS | Co-conveners: Tim aus der Beek, Louise CrochemoreECSECS, Andrew SchepenECSECS, Christopher White

Many water sectors are already having to cope with extreme weather events, climate variability and change. In this context, predictions on sub-seasonal and seasonal to decadal timescales (i.e. horizons ranging from months to a decade) are an essential part of hydrological forecasting. By providing science-based and user-specific information on potential impacts of variations in water availability, operational hydro-meteorological and climate services are invaluable to a range of water sectors such as water resources management, drinking water supply, transport, energy production, agriculture, disaster risk reduction, forestry, health, insurance, tourism and infrastructure.

This session aims to cover the research and operational advances in climate and hydro-meteorological forecasting, and their implications on predicting water availability for servicing water sectors. It welcomes, without being restricted to, presentations on:
- Technical challenges in making use of climate data for hydrological modelling (e.g. downscaling, bias correction, temporal disaggregation, spatial interpolation),
- Lessons learnt from forecasting and managing present day extreme conditions,
- Improved representations of hydrological extremes in a future climate,
- Seamless forecasting, including downscaling and statistical post- and pre-processing,
- Propagation of uncertainty through the forecasting chain for impact assessment and decision-making,
- Operational hydro-meteorological forecasting systems, hydro-climate services, and tools,
- Effective methods to link stakeholder interests and scientific expertise (e.g. service co-generation).

The session will bring together research scientists and operational managers in the fields of hydrology, meteorology and climate, with the aim of sharing experiences and initiating discussions on this momentous topic. We encourage presentations that utilise the WWRP/WCRP subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project database, and all hydrological relevant applications.