NH9.5

Efficient and secure transport networks ensure transportation of goods and people as well as access to essential services such as education, health care and emergency services. Natural hazardous events such as e.g., storms, floods, erosion, landslides, and forest fires might lead to disturbances in road and rail transport lines. The infrastructure users are then left with the choices of postponing or cancelling the trip, taking a detour, changing the mode of transport, or changing the travel destination.

The work described in this abstract proposes strategies for assessment of indirect consequences of extreme events affecting road transport. Functional vulnerability functions, expressing the probability of service disruption as a function of event intensity, are useful in the consequence assessment. The main portion of indirect consequences of a road service disruption stem from additional travel time for the users. The indirect economic consequences depend on the duration and the severity (e.g., full/partial closure) of the service disruption, the quality and capacity of the alternative transportation routes or alternative modes of transportation as well as the traffic volume, traffic composition and the time values related to the users in the affected network.

A case study is provided for simplified assessment of the indirect consequences of flooding on roads in Portugal. The analysis is conducted at a regional scale and is performed within a GIS environment.  The road network was subdivided into links, defined as continuous road segments without opportunities for detours. Flooding of one link would lead to a service disruption within the road network. The flood risk for the exposed links was analyzed as a function of the return period of the flooding, the flood intensities, and the expected duration of the service disruption. Flood hazard maps for different return periods (10-year, 100-year, and 500-year) were combined with a functional vulnerability model relating the flood intensity (flood depth and flood velocity) to a service disruption duration.  The case study categorizes the risk into 3 classes: low, medium and high. For a quantitative risk assessment, the risk classes need to be expressed using a quantitative parameter. Each risk class was quantified as the product of the probability of the flooding, the duration of the service disruption and unit costs of a service disruption. This allows the presentation of risk in terms of expected annual indirect costs associated with flooding.

The research leading to these results receives funding from the European Community’s H2020 Program MG-7-1-2017 Resilience to extreme (natural and man-made) events, under Grant Agreement number: 769255 - "GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY)". The work is also funded by the Research Council of Norway through the Centre for Research-based innovation KLIMA2050.

How to cite: Eidsvig, U., Sverdrup-Thygeson, K., and Piciullo, L.: Indirect consequences of flooding – assessment of service disruption of road transport, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2918, 2022.

The Po River District Authority has recently signed a research agreement with 20 Italian Universities and the Italian National Research Council (CNR) for updating the Flood Risk Management Plan, in compliance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC). Specifically, the MOVIDA project envisages the efforts of a research consortium dedicated to flood damage modelling (8 Universities and CNR) to provide an Information System capable to perform an analytical evaluation and mapping of expected damage, overcoming the limitations of present maps where the evaluation of risk remains highly qualitative and subjective.      
Proper damage assessment tools were identified for all the five categories of exposed elements foreseen by the EU Directive: population, infrastructures, economic activities, environmental and cultural heritage, and na-tech sites. A dedicated Open Source Geographic Information System (i.e. QGIS plugin) was developed and transferred to Regional Authorities for flood damage evaluation and mapping to all areas at significant risk in the Po District.    
Focusing on road and railway infrastructures, the methodology proposed adopts information coming from different data sources (Regional Geoportals, Open Street Map, etc.) and allows to qualitatively estimate the potential damage impacts of a flood event. Different impact classes (High, Medium, Low and Null) are assigned in relation to the roads category (i.e., Highways, Main, Secondary, Service, Other) or railways type (high-speed train or not), taking into account both the importance of the infrastructure itself (as well as its topographical characteristics: e.g. tunnel, bridge, etc.) and the magnitude of the expected event (i.e., hazard).
The results enable to spatially identify the extent of the impacted infrastructures and the locations of the flooded railway stations, information necessary to identify potential mitigation and support measures to the competent bodies in the organization of the rescue.

How to cite: Petruccelli, N., Gallazzi, A., Molinari, D., Hammouti, M., Zazzeri, M., Ballio, F., Sterlacchini, S., Brath, A., and Domeneghetti, A.: Qualitative evaluation of flood induced impacts for roads and railways infrastructures: an operative solution within the MOVIDA project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2381, 2022.

The electric power industry is a key branch of the Russian economy, providing production, transmission, distribution, and consumption of electrical energy, thereby creating the basic conditions for the functioning of the entire economy of the country and the life support of its population. Overhead power lines are mostly exposed to the impacts of various natural hazards and phenomena, especially those of hydro-meteorological genesis. Accidents and emergency situations with power outages triggered by natural hazards and adverse phenomena account for more than a half in the total number of natural-technological accidents registered in the author’s database. The vulnerability of power transmission networks is caused by their large length, covering the entire economically developed territory of the Russian Federation. Throughout their course, power lines inevitably fall into the area of activation of hazardous natural processes and phenomena. The paper aims to reveal regional differences in the accident occurrences due to hazardous natural impacts on power transmission lines, identify principal hydrometeorological factors of these accidents, and find out regions most at risk. The methods used are the geographic and statistical analysis of the information collected by the author in an electronic database on technological and natural-technological accidents and emergency situations. The majority of natural-technological accidents with a power failure are caused by wind loads, which are especially dangerous in combination with other hydro-meteorological factors such as rain, snow, ice and frost deposit, thunderstorm, and hail.

How to cite: Petrova, E.: Hydro-meteorological hazards and accidents at overhead power lines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2568, 2022.

Global climate warming and socioeconomic development would significantly increase the frequency and economic losses of extreme flood events in the future. But the overall economic consequences of extreme floods, including direct damages and indirect economic impacts, are rarely explicitly and comprehensively assessed. Furthermore, transportation network not only is one of critical infrastructure assets which are vulnerable to floods but also plays a key role in transporting inputs and products for economic sectors. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the potential effects of 1,000-year extreme storm flood scenario and transportation interruption caused by it on national and local economy, taking Shanghai as study area. By incorporating transportation cost induced demand changes and supply constraints by transport delay of inputs or goods, impacts of transport disruptions are clearly modelled. Moreover, some adaptive behaviors, like import substitution, supplier substitution of inputs, inventories, overproduction capacity, changes of transport modes, earlier start to reconstruction and so on, are also considered in inter-regional input-output (IRIO) model, because of the resilience of economic system. Our main results show that the following: (i) China may suffer substantial indirect economic losses (IELs), more than 1.11 times direct damages, and IELs in Shanghai may account for 27.91%. (ii) More negative economic impacts by transport disruptions spread to other indirectly affected regions, especially neighboring provinces, propagating through supply chain. (iii) Total IELs are very sensitive  to transport delay time, and economic losses from the delay may increase nearly linearly after using up inventories during the disruptions of transportation. Those results highlight the importance of strengthening resilience of the transport system and fast repairs after disaster. Also, results of different hypothetical scenarios show benefits of adaptive strategies, thereby providing some insights into post-disaster economic recovery for related policymakers and stakeholders.

How to cite: Ding, W. and Wu, J.: Inter-regional economic impacts of an extreme storm flood scenario considering transportation interruption: A case study in Shanghai, China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1047, 2022.

Barrages are low-head dams, used to realize diversion works for irrigation, hydroelectric or human consumption purposes. These in-river structures control the river bed elevation and maintain a prescribed water level upstream, affecting the levees’ elevation too if present. Often, they have been present for a long time (in the examined case centuries) and act as an inherent element of the surrounding environment, representing a constraint for the human activities growing through the years along the river.

The Roggia Morlana barrage, which is located across the Serio River in the Province of Bergamo, northern Italy, has for centuries been a fundamental part of the economic life in the area, thanks to the several artificial canals that supply water for irrigation purposes. In the mid-twentieth century, a maximum capacity of 4500 l/s was derived and distributed in an extensive area of about 4200 hectares, while nowadays this barrage keeps an important role also for hydroelectric power production.

In October 2020, an event led to the collapse of a part of the barrage and to the subsequent lowering of the river bed and destabilization of the banks. In addition to the stop of the hydropower production and the lack in satisfying the irrigation demand, the retrogressive erosion threatened various fundamental infrastructures crossing the river upstream (a gas pipeline, a water main and a bridge), hence a rapid rehabilitation of the barrage was required.

The stability of the restored barrage depends on the flood discharges and on the related scouring phenomena that could take place immediately downstream. With the aim to assess the exposure and vulnerability of this critical infrastructure to the natural hazard, the effects of different riverbed protection configurations are analysed through physical modelling, testing each configuration against flood events.

The area downstream the barrage is subdivided in frames delimited by bottom sills, filled with material. The physical model allowed to evaluate the effectiveness in scouring mitigation using different size of natural stones, put in place as loose boulders or wired in groups. To reduce the amount of damages and increase the resilience of the riverbed protection boulders have been substituted by concrete blocks in some frames. By this way, the goal to shift the scouring phenomena downstream, localizing the maximum scour depth far from the barrage foundations, is fulfilled.

The cost of the restoration obtained via different riverbed protections, increasing with the resilience of the barrage, is compared with the cost of their failure that can cause complex hazard cascades. This is because a failure of the Roggia Morlana barrage does not have consequences only to the hydropower production and irrigation service, but also on the safety of the infrastructures crossing the river upstream, potentially affected by backward erosion phenomena.

How to cite: Giaretta, P., Trentin, T., and Salandin, P.: Safety assessment of historical barrages and hazard cascades following their failure: the Roggia Morlana case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11094, 2022.

Cracks occurring on dike surfaces due to droughts, are a big threat for the stability of flood defense infrastructure as they increase infiltration rates and reduce the resistance to mass rotational failure (slope stability). Conventional methods for crack detection heavily rely on visual inspections, drone technologies survey, or destructive techniques such as sampling and trenching. Most of them result sparse qualitative and labor-intensive assessments. Due to the increase of drought and high temperature events during summer, an effective, reliable and sustainable monitoring system for crack detection is of vital importance.

During the period May-September 2021, a semi-full-scale dike prone to cracks, was monitored using Thermal Imaging and Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS); to collect temperature variations inside of an existing crack and at the surface of the dike. Both instruments were calibrated using temperature data from a TD-Diver datalogger and data from a nearby weather station. From the monitoring campaign it was observed that during daytime, the temperature difference between the dike surface and the crack, due to the solar radiation, becomes negligible when withdrawn from the thermal camera sensor. However, this is not the case for the DTS monitoring system. This pattern is inverted during nighttime for which the temperature differences are much more noticeable in the thermal images. Hence, we propose the thermal imaging and the DTS combined system as a good alliance to detect the spatially distributed formation and development of cracks on dikes.

How to cite: Duarte Campos, L. and Aguilar López, J. P.: Dike Monitoring comparison between thermal camera and DTS systems for drought induced cracks on dikes., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11657, 2022.

Manmade soil-based flood defences are conceived and designed for containing water outside flood prone areas during extreme wet events. However, their reliability is reduced in time due to extreme drought events due to formation of drought induced cracks. While monitoring and maintenance are robustly done by visual expert inspections, they are not sufficiently efficient given the length and heterogeneity of soil retaining defences such as dikes and dams. In the present study, we explore the feasibility of a machine learning based fiber optic sensing system for detecting cracks over heterogeneous soil dikes. The system consists in generating detailed output training datasets from thermal imagery of both cracked and healthy dike soil and combining it with FOS thermal signal for the same exact locations. These datasets were collected during the summer of 2021 in the dike lab testing facility (Flood Proof Holland) from TU Delft in the Netherlands. If successful, the system will allow to use the FOS distributed signal in long dike stretches to detect un-observed cracked locations that present similar FOS signal in space and time. The preliminary results show great potential but it still remains to test it in significantly larger dike stretches and during dryer periods.                 

How to cite: Aguilar-López, J. P. and Duarte-Campos, L.: ML/FOS detection system for drought induced cracks on dikes, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11662, 2022.

Power networks are critical economic infrastructure and are susceptible to natural hazards, such as hurricanes and floods. Disruptions in power systems due to extreme climatic events can cause major detrimental impacts to social systems and large economic losses, and these may worsen due to climate change. Existing methods can be used to spatially map climate risks in energy systems, understand cascading risks, and quantify expected damages in terms of direct and indirect economic losses. Yet, there is a dearth of methods that link operational models of energy networks with climate risk methodologies, making it difficult to assess the impact of system-level operational changes (e.g., increasing renewable energy system (RES) penetration) on climate risk and resilience. In the context of small-island states, such advances are urgently needed as a precursor to producing robust adaptation plans. 

In this work, we introduce a framework to simulate climatic risks in large-scale power networks under uncertain climatic change. We link a highly resolved power system simulation model with a state-of-the-art climate risk analytical framework. We apply our methodology in a national scale case-study from Jamaica. Our results provide the following key insights:

• We spatially map climate risks under varying scenarios of climate change to identify the most vulnerable assets in the power network across the island;
• We quantify the expected direct and indirect damages, as well as the number of customers affected;
• We simulate operational changes in the power system (e.g., increasing RES penetration, adding transmission capacity, changing utility pole materials) and quantify their impact on the risk profiles, and thus informing adaptation.

Our assessment presents a comprehensive assessment of climate risks across Jamaica, which was produced in conjunction with stakeholders from government, industry, and academia from the region.

How to cite: Majid, A., Pant, R., Russell, T., and Hall, J. W.: Climatic risk, resilience, and adaptation of power systems in small-island states: the case of Jamaica, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2965, 2022.

From the territorial land use planning perspective new urban areas have been safeguarded during the last decades by the Portuguese regulation and practice that consider land use restrictions on landslide hazard prone areas. Nevertheless, the fatalities due to landslides did not reduce in number, mostly due to the occurrence of rapid shallow landslides, affecting people inside buildings and more recently, inside vehicles, as a consequence of the increasing people’s mobility. When the exposure is to deep-seated landslides, structures and infrastructures frequently undergo intense destruction, leading to severe disruption of economic and social activities.

The present work intends to evaluate actual exposure of road network to landslides in the context of a Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) prototype, developed upon both soft and low-cost technology. To achieve this main goal, three specific objectives were defined: (i) to evaluate the road network exposure considering different road types; (ii) to evaluate the re-routing of circulation for users, the loss of access to functions or services, due to travel time increase; and (iii) to evaluate the road network connectivity hierarchy and its contribute to define landslide risk hotspots for evacuation and rescue access in case of disastrous landslide events.

The study area corresponds to four municipalities (Alenquer, Arruda dos Vinhos, Sobral de Monte Agraço and Vila Franca de Xira) that are partially included in the Grande da Pipa River (GPR) basin, which is one of the most landslide prone areas in Portugal. The road network hierarchy data is based on available official road network maps; the road segment connectivity role in regional network is based on graph analysis; and the landslide risk hotspots - are classified by combining the different types of road segments, the re-routing travel time scenarios and the road network hierarchy and network connectivity function with the shallow and deep-seated landslide maps produced in the context of the BeSafeSlide project.

The final results will be incorporated on the LEWS prototype, which is conceptualized to be people-centred, which means, not specifically focused on hazardous processes, but on reducing exposure and vulnerability, allowing an effective implementation of risk management strategies, contributing for increasing resilience and adaptive capacity building of local communities.

Acknowledgments: This work was financed by national funds through FCT (Foundation for Science and Technology, I. P.), in the framework of the project BeSafeSlide – Landslide early warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017), and the Research Unit UIDB/00295/2020 and UIDP/00295/2020.

How to cite: Marques da Costa, N., Oliveira, S. C., Zêzere, J. L., Morgado, P., Rocha, J., and Melo, R.: Road network exposure, connectivity and hierarchy as input to assess landslide risk hotspots, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11699, 2022.

In 2021 a 3 months project with this title, PI the first author, has been funded in the envisaged field A. Revisiting the research strategy of the university – strategic research field. In order to design the strategy in this field, we worked with a template inspired by strategic planning in urban planning. We first reviewed other strategies, such as of the Romanian funding agency, Horizon Europe, and ICCROM. We also reviewed approaches of inter-governmental organisations Romania is part of, other than ICCROM, such as ICOMOS (and the related international scientific committees) or the UN. We looked to centres and their courses in the field. A special attention received the involvement of the civil protection. Our strategy first looked at problems (infrastructure needed) and opportunities (doctorates, including courses at doctorate and masters level, and research projects in the field at the university). The funding opportunities built a separate deliverable, with a learning programme. After this examples of priorities were set. Research objectives and sub-objectives can be formulated according to the discipline, and the project involved indeed six experts from various departments of the university (such as urban and landscape design, technical sciences, architecture design, management of research, and the two doctoral schools, in architecture and urban planning respectively, represented by 5 PhD candidates in the team). The experts could comment on the strategy and show the point of view of their discipline in a conference which took place virtually on 22-23 November 2021 and had over 50 attendants. These objectives are translated in measures packages, which were also exemplified. To these correspond different implementation and consensus means, as well as implementation plans, on different time horizons, also exemplified. This can be best seen in pilot projects. In this case, since it is a strategy for research and not for urban intervention, the focus in choosing pilot projects was on several case studies. At the conference we also had guests: from the university involving other fields (geography), from the Civil engineering University, as well as from abroad (Hungary and Portugal). With the Hungarian Széchenyi István University in Győr there is a memorandum and understanding. Portugal instead built a case study of possible cooperation and future projects. The other pilot was how to write a European project proposal in the field of floods for the city of Giurgiu, based on chief architect experience. The strategy was rounded up by a brief literature list in the field. More about the project and the conference, including programme, here: https://www.uauim.ro/en/research/disasterprotect/

How to cite: Bostenaru Dan, M., Brastaviceanu, M., Gociman, C. O., Florescu, T., Craciun, C., Hărmănescu, M., Iordăchescu, A., Petrea, S., Topalov, S., Gacichevici, A. M., Gârjoabă, A., and Vărzaru, C.: “Ion Mincu“ University of Architecture and Urbanism research strategy in the field of disater for protection of natural and built heritage in urban and rural zones, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-665, 2022.

 Abstract

Since earthquake-induced damages have been escalating in recent years, and some structures built in Europe are designed without considering seismic design standards or with considering moderate design standards, seismic evaluation of existing buildings is required to perform (Aftabur & Shajib, 2012; Valentina et al., 2018). Determining safety level of existing buildings and performing appropriate precautions is essential not only to prevent possible life-threatening issues but also to minimize economic losses. There are various methods for determining seismic safety of existing structures. Among these methods, detailed seismic assessment methods are challenging to implement; however, Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) methods are capable to applied relatively simply and in a short time to assess large building stocks. Therefore, existing buildings are needed to be inspected by RVS procedures in order to take necessary precautions before an impending earthquake. This study compares performance of 20 Reinforced Concrete (RC) residential buildings in Gyor, Hungary, by employing FEMA P-154, JBDPA and RISK-UE RVS methods. The assessment results provide a comparison of the employed methods to identify building damage state and provide the insight needed to decide whether additional existing buildings should be examined in order to reduce earthquake-induced damage.

References

Aftabur, R., & Shajib, U. (2012). Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of RC Structures: A Review. International Journal of Science & Emerging Technologies, 4(4), 171–177.

Valentina, P., Georgios, T., & Luisa, R. D. M. D. N. E. S. D. S. M. M. (2018). Building stock inventory to assess seismic vulnerability across Europe (978-92-79-86707-1; No. JRC112031). Publications Office of the European Union. https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC112031

How to cite: Bektaş, N. and Kegyes-Brassai, O.: A case study of comparative seismic assessment of reinforced concrete structures using rapid visual screening methods, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12593, 2022.