NH9.11

The focus on adaptation to climate change within policy and research has increased over the last decades. Although the adaptation of human societies to a changing environment is nothing new, the accelerated rate of anthropogenic climate change and the resulting increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards raise new questions regarding the effectiveness of adaptive measures, and whether limits to adaptation could be reached. Adaptation limits are defined by the IPCC as the point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risk through adaptive actions. They are highly context-dependent and can be financial, technical or biophysical, but are also rooted within beliefs, knowledge, or norms and values. Reaching an adaptation limit means going beyond the adaptive capacity of an actor or system. Adaptive  capacity is influenced by the awareness of policymakers and decision makers for the need to act, making it important to understand their perceptions on climate change and adaptation measures in order to identify limits to adaptation. The research project “TransLoss” aims to provide empirical policy-relevant scientific insights into climate-related risks “beyond adaptation” that may play a role in Austria now and in the future, and their influence on society and the natural environment.

We carried out semi-structured interviews (n=26) with Austrian experts from research, policy and practice to identify main sources of concern related to climate-related risks and possible factors impeding adaptation. The interviews were analysed using Qualitative Content Analysis (QCA) and coded into categories identifying the most relevant hazards and sectors which are perceived to be most impacted, as well as factors increasing vulnerability and exposure. Possible adaptation limits were divided into groups according to whether they are biophysical, technical, financial, knowledge-related, or value-related. Mentions of cooperation with other institutions and relevant projects were mapped and offer an insight into the stakeholder landscape dealing with disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Austria.

Scenarios of intolerable climate-related risks and impacts (such as loss of life) described by the interviewees are frequently related to water availability and supply. Large-scale floods from extreme precipitation or the bursting of dams, heat stress triggering impacts on protection forests and loss of agricultural production, and “chain reactions” (or systemic risks) caused by blackouts, which affect multiple sectors, may also lead to intolerable impacts. Measures which could prevent the breaching of adaptation limits and reduce losses and damages include more restrictive hazard zoning and increased cooperation between interest groups (e.g. farmers, foresters, municipalities, citizens, different levels of administration), for example through more interdisciplinary networks and consultations regarding adaptation measures. More awareness-raising for climate change among policymakers and society is needed, as well as shifting more responsibility on households for private risk reduction. This could for instance be achieved through compulsory climate-related hazard insurance, increased financial contributions when benefiting from protective measures or reduced financial support after a hazardous event.

How to cite: Karabaczek, V., Schinko, T., Menk, L., and Kienberger, S.: Perceptions on intolerable climate-related risks and potential limits to adaptation in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11617, 2022.

This paper contributes to the study of collaborative governance (CG) - systems where autonomous actors work together around shared objectives using pooled resources to address a common goal. Among CG’s claimed benefits are boosting actor capacities for transformative action and increasing their resilience to complex multi-scaled challenges such as hazards and sudden catastrophic events. We engage with collaborative governance through a case study of changing public policy and institutional structures that govern hazards in Nepal. Following the shocking event of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal’s approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been reshaped by federalisation and institutional reforms that aim to embed a governing system based on greater collaboration. We argue this shift amounts to a state transition to a collaborative governance regime (CGR) for DRR. Using primary qualitative data derived from 17 semi-structured interviews at national, provincial, and local scales, we identify state-sponsored scalar narratives around 1) actor capacities and tendencies in DRR; 2) knowledge production on DRR and its dissemination; and 3) formal and informal institutional DRR roles and responsibilities. We show how these narratives are being used as anchor points for a new CG approach to national DRR strategy. However, our analysis shows these narratives risk excluding local participation in DRR by marginalising grassroots politics to emphasise top-down state-led goals. In turn, this leads us to question the viability of the emerging governance regime as a truly collaborative project embedding principles of sustainability and inclusivity. We conclude that if these state scalar narratives continue to shape national policy, they will impede the potential for transformative collaborative action for DRR in Nepal.

How to cite: Russell, C., Clark, J., Hannah, D., and Sugden, F.: Towards a collaborative governance regime for disaster risk reduction: exploring scalar narratives of institutional change in Nepal., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2600, 2022.

Climate-related sudden-onset events (e.g., floods, cyclones) and slow-onset processes (e.g., sea level rise and heat waves) pose a major risk to communities all over the world. With intensifying climate change in combination with unequal socioeconomic development, climate-related risks are expected to escalate in the future, potentially leading to critical losses and damages. This calls for efficient and achievable risk management strategies. Climate Risk Management (CRM) is a leading approach to identify, assess and reduce risks, through an integration of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and sustainable development. CRM aims at comprehensively managing risks and increasing resilience and adaptive capacity. To date, several conceptual CRM frameworks have been developed, which have, however, rarely been applied to real-world cases.

Based on this conceptual literature, we further develop a comprehensive CRM framework, comprising both the risk assessment as well as the implementation and monitoring domains of CRM, and test it on three real-world risk cases in Peru, India and Austria. The cases have distinct spatial scales, from local level in Peru, to district level in India, to nationwide in Austria. The risks covered in these cases are linked to different hazards, ranging from glacier lake outburst floods (Peru), sea level rise, salinization and cyclones (India), to riverine flooding and agricultural droughts (Austria).

The aim of this complementary case study approach is to validate the overall structure and individual steps of the CRM framework against actual risk management practices in the three case studies. Based on the specific results and common insights from the three cases, we are able to (1) evaluate the applicability of the proposed conceptual CRM framework in real world circumstances, (2) present evidence on the extent to which comprehensive management of climate-related risks has been achieved in the three cases, and (3) synthesize policy recommendations towards an achievable comprehensive CRM in practice, acknowledging specific local contexts and characteristics.

How to cite: Hagen, I., Allen, S., Bahinipati, C. S., Frey, H., Huggel, C., Karabaczek, V., Kienberger, S., Mechler, R., Menk, L., and Schinko, T.: An international perspective on comprehensive climate risk management: experiences from Peru, India and Austria, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6038, 2022.

In recent decades, West Africa has experienced some of the most extreme rainfall variability anywhere in the world with adverse impacts on different sectors such as food security or water resources. Climate projections for the 21^st century tend to show that the future could be even worse. Better access to reliable climate information underpins effective climate change adaptation in a variety of sectors. However the data needed are often hard to find and there are major obstacles which limit the confidence and use of this information in decision-making processes: climate data use requires very good IT skills and climate knowledge. Effective and easy to use climate tools require a clear need for interactive climate portals that allow data visualization and download for further analysis. Although, some climate portals already exist in West Africa, most of them suffer from major flaws or were not designed based on user’s needs. To address this challenge, IRD together with ANACIM (Senegalese Meteorological Service) co-designed a Web-portal in Senegal with high quality simulations and following three steps to make it usable by stakeholders: (i) build a dialogue with relevant stakeholders, (ii) develop methodologies for using climate and impacts models and (iii) perform capacity building and training activities. This talk will illustrate those three steps of the design of the Web-portal.

How to cite: Sultan, B. and Sane, Y.: Building a climate change impacts portal for Senegal to promote decision making, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2991, 2022.

Almost half of the Burkinabe population is moderately or severely affected by food insecurity. Due to ongoing armed conflicts and the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 negatively affecting households’ income and access to markets, the number of food insecure people is expected to increase. Moreover, climate change further jeopardizes domestic food production and thus food security. Early warning systems can provide information about the expected harvest, which allows governments to adjust food imports in case of expected harvest losses or ask for external food assistance. Thus, early warning systems can contribute to increased food security.

In this session, we would like to discuss how a forecast of staple crop production can inform early warning systems of food security. Based on a statistical crop model, we provide a within-season forecast of crop production for maize, sorghum and millet in Burkina Faso. Moreover, we compare actually supplied calories with those usually consumed from staple crops, allowing us to provide early information on shortages in domestic cereal production on the national level.

Results show that despite sufficient domestic cereal production from maize, sorghum and millet on average, a considerable level of food insecurity prevails for large parts of the population. This highlights the importance of a comprehensive assessment of all dimensions of food security to rapidly develop counteractions for looming food crises.

How to cite: Laudien, R., Gornott, C., Schauberger, B., and Waid, J.: Forecasting shortages in staple crop production in Burkina Faso to inform early warning systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11633, 2022.

Hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, landslides and droughts are in many parts of the world occurring more frequently and more severely than in the past and are exacerbated by climate change. UNESCO-designated sites which focus on the protection and sustainable use of natural and cultural heritage are often partly or entirely exposed to natural hazards and extreme weather events, with potential impacts on the communities living in or near the sites, and on their livelihoods. Many natural UNESCO sites such as Biosphere Reserves and UNESCO Global Geoparks can serve as effective climate observatories and testing grounds for sustainable approaches including Nature-based Solutions (NBS).

NBS are based on the sustainable management, protection, and use of nature to mitigate environmental risks and preserve ecosystems, while providing environmental, social, and economic benefits, and building resilience to a changing climate. UNESCO promotes the uptake of integrated NBS for disaster risk reduction by leveraging local and scientific knowledge streams and participatory stakeholder engagement.

OPERANDUM is an EU-funded project supported by UNESCO that aims to deliver tools and methods to prove the efficacy of innovative NBS for multi-hazard hydro-meteorological risks in rural and natural areas. These so-called Open-Air Laboratories (OALs) comprise 10 rural territories, including two European Biosphere Reserves, where novel NBS practices are implemented and assessed through innovative monitoring systems and cutting-edge numerical modelling approaches.

The Po Delta Biosphere Reserve represents part of the OAL Italy where river flooding and subsequent salt intrusions driven by climate change and sea level rise threaten the livelihoods of local communities. Novel lab experiments have been developed to assess the ability of different plant species to function as effective natural barriers to salt intrusions and protect agricultural lands, reinforce the riverbank, and preserve inland water quality. In addition, advanced monitoring techniques and multi-scale impact modelling are deployed on site to estimate the impact of the NBS.

In an effort to promote upscaling of these solutions, OPERANDUM has developed an open-source online platform for NBS called the Geospatial Information Knowledge Platform (GeoIKP). Building on the knowledge acquired at the OALs, the platform offers a variety of cutting-edge services, interactive tools, customizable web-GIS functionalities, and standardized data repositories. It aims to serve as a hub for the global NBS community to share information, tools, data, and experiences to reduce hydro-meteorological hazards, and to address related societal challenges in rural areas.

How to cite: Pavlova, I., Amirzada, Z., Pulvirenti, B., Ruggieri, P., Leo, L. S., Kalas, M., and Di Sabatino, S.: European Biosphere Reserves - open air laboratories for tackling hydrometeorological hazards, OPERANDUM project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10141, 2022.

The Open-Air Laboratory, a novel concept developed by the EU-funded Operandum project(OPEn-air laboRAtories for Nature baseD solutions to Manage Environmental risk) to co-design,implement and assess the effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs), has been introduced at the EGU General Assembly 2021  (Ruggieri, P. and the OAL-Italy: The Open-Air Laboratory Italy, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9495, 2021.). In this work we present the results obtained in the framework of the Open-Air Laboratory Italy (OAL-Italy) related to innovative NBSs to mitigate the impact of hydrometeorological hazards in present and future climate. The results are multidisciplinary and involve novel modelling strategies, laboratory measurements and targeted monitoring open-field campaigns in three operational sites, where NBSs are implemented to mitigate a range of hydrometeorological hazards such as coastal erosion, flooding, storm surge and salt wedge intrusion. Innovative NBSs tested and developed by the OAL include deep-rooted plants installed on a river embankment to prevent levee failures, special plants that can live in high salt concentration and remove salt from the river mouth water, an artificial dune and marine seagrass to mitigate the impact of storm surges and coastal erosion. The three sites where these NBS are implemented are located in the Emilia Romagna region, in Northern Italy and they involve the Panaro river, a tributary of the Po river, a branch in the Po river delta and a beach in the north Adriatic sea close to the delta Po river. The innovative approaches to tackle the mentioned hazards are described and results in terms of monitoring campaign results in combination with modelling results are presented. We discuss the innovative approach proposed to test and validate the efficacy of the NBS in present and future climate, in order to evaluate the replicability and the upscaling of the NBSs. We confirm that the OAL constitutes an unprecedented holistic effort towards sustainable land management, adaptation to climate change and the acceptance of Nature-Based Solutions.

How to cite: Ruggieri, P. and the The OAL-Italy: Results by the Open-Air Laboratory Italy, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7440, 2022.

Characteristics of Parametric Risk Transfer 

Extreme heat events are an underrecognized natural hazard impacting many parts of society, and especially the vulnerable poor. Sometimes the effects of a heat event, or a heat wave, are measurable, such as in the relationship between heat and reproductive outcomes in agriculture, or directly as damaged infrastructure or higher cost of industrial cooling. More often, the true impacts and social costs are more difficult to quantify such as in the case of reduced labor productivity, spikes in moribundity and mortality and a variety of other business interruptions.

We present a parametric risk transfer product targeting extreme heat effects. The initial application of the product is for heat emergencies in working poor urban settings of Northern India, but the objective is to generalize the product globally.

Heat Index Selection

Central to a parametric risk transfer product is an index that is closely related to the damaging effects. This index should be based on an undisputed data source, that neither the insured or the insurance provider can influence. In parametric risk transfer, payouts are based on the index value, rather than an ex-post loss assessment. The main strengths of parametric products is that payments for an event can be made nearly immediately following a triggering event, providing financial resources to quickly address and mitigate losses.

We tested and present a large sample of the many extreme heat indexes which exist in the literature  pertaining to human physiology for their historical impacts on mortality and on business interruption from historical data in Europe and India.

We characterize the risk in terms of maximum severity as well as the bivariate relationship of severity and duration and derive exceedance probabilities. Based on this assessment, we adopt a generalized form of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature as extreme heat index, based on the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis.

Implementation in Gujarat, India

The index will be implemented as part of a resilience building program with women’s network Mahila Housing Trust, across three cities in the Gujurat state of India. The index will form the basis of a risk transfer product with local credit cooperatives in these regions - ultimate beneficiaries will be individual cooperative members, women employed in the informal sector. A climate risk education program will also be offered concurrently to inform mitigation and adaptation measures for the cooperative members.

  Global applicability

The use of parametric risk transfer schemes to mitigate the effects of extreme heat is possible beyond the implementation in India. Based ont he lessons learnt in this pilot project, parametric products can be used in extreme heat risk adaptation if:

1. the index and data sources are defined and accepted by all local parties.

2. a strong local distribution channel is present

3. strong capacity is built to deal with basis risk

How to cite: Tuinenburg, O., Smith, W., Brahmbhatt, B., Gorana, R., and Hartell, J.: Extreme heat index for Parametric Risk Transfer in Northern India, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7269, 2022.