Beatriz Monge-Sanz, Alessio Bozzo, Nicholas Byrne, Martyn Chipperfield, Michail Diamantakis, Johannes Flemming, Lesley Gray, Robin Hogan, Luke Jones, Linus Magnusson, Inna Polichtchouk, Theodore Shepherd, Nils Wedi, and Antje Weisheimer
Our study shows the relevance of the interactions between atmospheric chemistry and physics to achieve better weather predictions. We provide evidence of the role that stratospheric ozone plays to improve weather forecasts on several timescales, and highlight the need for seamless models to include realistic prognostic ozone interactive with radiation.
Representing realistic feedbacks between ozone, radiation, temperature and dynamics is essential to correctly simulate the behaviour of the stratosphere and its links with tropospheric weather and climate. We have implemented an alternative stratospheric ozone model (Monge-Sanz et al., 2011) in the ECMWF system interactively with radiation, and we have assessed its performance and feedbacks with meteorological fields for different timescales, from medium-range to seasonal. Here we will discuss results from the experiments and analyses conducted in our study (Monge-Sanz et al., 2021), showing the feasibility of this ozone model for a seamless numerical weather prediction approach.
We will show that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by this new prognostic ozone model compares very well with observations even for unusual meteorological conditions. On assessing impacts on meteorological variables, the new ozone model improves the representation of the stratosphere, clearly reducing temperature biases in this region. We will also show the benefits it brings to tropospheric meteorological fields, highlighting the potential of this new ozone description to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of time scales.
Therefore, our results show the value of this prognostic stratospheric ozone model for seamless Earth System Models, as well as for global systems where atmospheric composition is coupled to weather forecasts, like the systems being run within the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). We will also discuss challenges and possible strategies for the inclusion of chemistry-dynamics feedbacks in seamless Earth System Models.
Monge-Sanz BM, Chipperfield MP, Cariolle D, Feng W. Results from a new linear O3 scheme with embedded heterogeneous chemistry compared with the parent full-chemistry 3-D CTM. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1227-1242, 2011.
Monge-Sanz, B. M., Bozzo, A., Byrne, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Diamantakis, M., Flemming, J., Gray, L. J., Hogan, R. J., Jones, L., Magnusson, L., Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G., Wedi, N., and Weisheimer, A.: A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth System Models: performance, impacts and future, Atmos. Chem. Phys., accepted, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-1261, 2021.