UK crop yields towards the end of the 21st century under a worst case RCP 8.5 climate change scenario: Using the UKCP18 convection permitting model to drive T&C-Crop, a recently developed process-based ecosystem model with a novel agricultural module.

Climate change is increasingly affecting crop production, boosting crop yields in some parts of the world whilst decreasing them in others. The UK is a prime, albeit condensed example of this variability. This is due to the UK’s noticeable regional heterogeneity when it comes to present and projected future climate. Subsequently, the impact of climate change on UK crop yields is likely to be spatially non-uniform as well as crop-specific. Thus, any blanket approach to agricultural adaptation in light of climate change is likely to be sub-optimal. In light of this, we here propose a quantitative assessment to support regional agricultural policy. We examine how crop-specific yields (e.g., Maize, Wheat, Potatoes…) are likely to vary spatially in the UK towards the end of the 21^st century under a worst case RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. To achieve this we use the latest generation convection permitting model projections offered by the Met Office (UKCP18) which allow for climate projections at ecohydrological relevant spatiotemporal scales. These climate projections are then used to drive T&C-Crop, a recently developed process-based ecosystem model with a novel agricultural module.