Underestimation of reported methane emissions, and air pollutant loadings, from upstream oil and gas activities in Canada

Canada was an early adopter of methane regulation in the oil and gas sector, and recently announced a more ambitious goal to reduce 75% of methane emissions by 2030. New stricter methane regulations should also help reduce loading of air pollutants typically associated with methane emissions (H₂S, VOCs, ozone). To examine regional emission trends and to derive an inventory estimate for Canada’s upstream oil and gas sector, we measured methane emissions at 6650 sites across six major oil and gas producing regions in Canada. Our research suggests that methane emissions from the oil and gas industry are underestimated in Canada by ~1.5. For Canada’s largest producing province, Alberta, we found a greater than 1000-fold variation in methane intensity per unit of fossil energy production within the cohort of oil and gas producers. Producer self-published methane emission intensities in ESG materials showed a low bias and tended to mirror regulatory submissions that require reporting only on specific source types. Our measurements suggest that methane-associated pollutants produced by oil and gas activities are also underestimated and communities near these activities may face higher loading of methane-accessory contaminants than might be predicted by Canada’s National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI). Using accepted pollutant emission factors, reported flaring and other combustion activity, the federal methane inventory, and our methane measurements, we generated air quality exposure maps reflecting air pollutant loads on Canadian communities. Stricter methane regulation has the potential to significantly decrease methane, but also pollutant loads in several heavy oil communities including the Lloydminster - Bonnyville area.