Unfolding the role of active/break spells in compound hot and dry extremes (CHDE) in India

Abstract

The co-occurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes can have profound consequences than either individual extremes. The role of increasing warm spells in increasing CHDEs has been studied in various studies, but the role of active and break spells on CHDEs during monsoon has not been studied. As a result, in this study, we investigated the fraction of CHDEs in both active and break spells in India. We used copula and threshold-based methodology to characterize CHDE to investigate the uncertainty in the frequency of CHDEs during active and break spells. We also looked at how CHDEs in two different spells will impact society differently. We further investigated the changes in CHDEs to future projections of active-break spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The findings of the study may help to mitigate the severe impacts of compound hot and dry extremes in the future.

Keywords: Climate change, Compound extremes, active spells, dry spells