Simulating direct and semi-direct effect of aerosols on subseasonal prediction: climatology versus interactive aerosols in the UFS model
- 1Global Systems Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA (shan.sun@noaa.gov)
- 2Chemical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA (gregory.j.frost@noaa.gov)
- 3University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, USA (kate.zhang@noaa.gov)
- 4Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA, College Park, MD, USA (barry.baker@noaa.gov)
- 5NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA, College Park, MD, USA (jessica.meixner@noaa.gov)
- 6I.M. System Group at NOAA NCEP EMC, College Park, MD, USA (anning.cheng@noaa.gov)
We investigate the aerosol direct and semi-direct effect on subseasonal prediction using NOAA’s fully coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS) model, which includes the atmospheric model FV3 with the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics package V17, MOM6 ocean model, WW3 wave model and CICE6 sea ice model. A systematic twin experiment is carried out: (i) UFS with prescribed aerosol climatology and (ii) UFS coupled to interactive aerosols from the GOCART aerosol module. Both experiments are deterministic 32-day hindcasts with monthly initialization over multiple years.
The modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) in both experiments is in good agreement with the MODIS satellite observations. The AOD from the experiments with interactive aerosols captured the interannual variability seen in the observations. The estimated radiative forcing from the aerosol radiation interaction in these two sets of experiments is similar in the multi-year average. However, the advantage in the experiments with interactive aerosols can be seen clearly when simulating radiative forcing in the extreme dust storm and biomass burning events. Changes in cloud and precipitation are small between these two sets of experiments.
How to cite: Sun, S., Frost, G., Grell, G., Zhang, L., Baker, B., Meixner, J., and Cheng, A.: Simulating direct and semi-direct effect of aerosols on subseasonal prediction: climatology versus interactive aerosols in the UFS model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11392, 2023.
