Using super-residual heat transport to elucidate ocean heat storage in a resolution hierarchy of models

The large spread in projections of ocean heat uptake found in CMIP simulations is known to be problematic, leading to large uncertainties in the projected future ocean heat storage. This study introduces a new diagnostic, super-residual transport (SRT), to trace ocean heat uptake processes consistently in different models. SRT is the contribution to ocean heat uptake associated with residual mean advection and isopycnal diffusion, and therefore explains large and mesoscale heat transports in terms of spatial scale regardless of model resolution. We compare two different resolutions (eddy-parameterising and eddy-present models) of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 models to investigate performance of ocean heat uptake simulation and suggest where focus should be applied in model development.

We find that high-latitude regions show substantial inter-resolution differences in SRT of the mean state. Due to strong along-isopycnal heat uptake poleward of 50°S, a large amount of heat is stored in the Southern Ocean with little sea surface warming. The ocean heat uptake in the mixed layer is stronger and deeper near Drake passage in the eddy-present model which has steeper isopycnal surfaces of the Southern Ocean. The deep ocean warming varies with model resolution due to different properties of deep water formation in Weddell Sea and North Atlantic, which provides different paths from the surface to the bottom of the ocean. We demonstrate that mesoscale eddy advection due to baroclinic instability, implemented by Gent-McWilliams parameterisation, is key to understanding the differences in warming Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water across resolutions.

In the context of CO₂-forced change, SRT shows much higher similarity across model resolutions than in the mean state. For both model resolutions, the mixed layer warming driven by SRT is much reduced in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. This results mainly from slumping of isopycnals, which brings excessive heat further northward of 50°S and then downward by enhanced Deacon cell. Consistent with our findings in the mean state, deep ocean warming penetrated to the bottom of the Southern Ocean is only observed in the eddy-present model. An important implication of this result is that better agreement across model resolutions in AMOC strength and North Atlantic warming is achieved in CO₂-induced SRT. This suggests that whether ocean mesoscale is explicitly resolved or parameterised becomes less influential with respect to the patterns of ocean warming as the climate warms, which results from abrupt changes in mean circulation and reduced effect of Gent-McWilliams parameterisation.