Present and projected humid heat exposure and precipitation extremes in Turkey

Regional intensification of precipitation extremes and the emergence of humid heat stress conducive to periling vulnerable populations suggest the need for further nation-specific risk assessments. Here, we conduct the first analysis of present and projected population exposure to extreme wet-bulb temperature (Tw) values in Turkey and concurrently use the generalized extreme value (GEV) theory to model extreme precipitation based on multiple intensity, duration, and frequency metrics. Using simulations dynamically downscaled to 0.11-degree resolution via the COSMO-CLM model, we provide a nationwide picture of the trends in these metrics and derive the number of people exposed to Tw extremes based on the population estimates in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under the high-emission RCP 8.5 scenario. As part of the GEV analysis, our main goal is to show how precipitation extremes in Turkey evolve and transform due to the changing climate not only in stationary but also in non-stationary climate settings. Our results convey a detailed understanding of the potentially dangerous conditions across climatologically different regions of Turkey and are relevant for decision-makers.