A probabilistic assessment of extreme weather event impacts on crop yield in Germany

The impacts of extreme weather on the agricultural sector are a global concern in a changing climate. In recent years, single and compound weather extremes have increased in frequency, intensity and duration and are expected to worsen in the upcoming decades. Therefore, it is necessary to have a better understanding of extreme weather-related crop yield shock to ensure food security in a growing worldwide population. In this study, we employed a logistic regression model to quantify the risk of major crop yield shocks associated with heat stress, extreme precipitation and frosts. We used reported sub-national level data from Germany and a percentile-based threshold to define yield shock. Climate extreme drivers were based on statistical thresholds over daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. In addition to this,  we investigated how the seasonal meteorological pre-conditions of temperature and precipitation can modulate extreme weather-related yield shock.