Evaluation of Regional Climate Model IITM-RegCM4 for Kashmir Valley in India

Climate change caused by human activities is a major topic of discussion in today's world and is of great concern. Currently, India is experiencing several climate anomalies, including changes in the mean temperature and severe natural disasters due to climate change. Kashmir valley in Jammu and Kashmir, India, is considered one of the hotspots for such climate change risk due to its physiographic and geographic location. Therefore, it is essential to study the future trend in climate projections to take necessary mitigation and adaptation measures in this region. Currently, as part of the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), IITM Pune, uses a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) to downscale global climate projection to a uniform 50 km resolution for the South Asia region. This RCM is driven by six global driving models, namely, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, and NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M. In the present study, the performance of the IITM-RegCM4 model coupled with their six driving models was evaluated for its capability to simulate the historical temperature projections over the Kashmir valley for the period of 29 years from 1977 to 2005. The outputs from six CORDEX model experiments of IITM, namely CanESM2-RegCM4, CNRM-RegCM4, CSIRO-RegCM4, IPSL-RegCM4, MPI-RegCM4, and NOAA-RegCM4, were compared with the IMD observational data for the region Srinagar and Qazigund. Comparative analysis of the projections from six models revealed that temperature projections from the CSIRO-RegCM4 model are more promising than all other climate model projections. Further, the future change in temperature in Kashmir Valley was estimated under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period 2011–2100. The results indicated an increasing trend in the mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures at both Srinagar and Qazigund stations under both scenarios compared to the base period (1977–2005). It was observed that under both scenarios, the annual mean maximum temperature is projected to increase from 1.6 °C to 1.7 °C during 2030s, 2.8 °C to 3.5 °C during 2060s, and 3.1 °C to 5.9 °C during 2090s. Similarly, the annual mean minimum temperature is projected to increase from 1.5 °C to 1.8 °C during 2030s, 3 °C to 3.9 °C during 2060s, and 3.4 °C to 6.1 °C during 2090s. The results and information generated from this study can be used for framing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. The estimated variations in temperature can be used for adaptation planning in the Kashmir Valley.