Regional impacts of CO and NOx mitigation in a methane emissions-driven model

Methane plays a central role in the atmosphere, affecting the atmospheric oxidising capacity through its reaction with OH, air quality through its role as an ozone precursor, and climate through its greenhouse gas properties.  

Methane emissions-driven models provide an opportunity to study the Earth system within a global model that features the most accurate representation of the methane cycle. Here we use the methane emissions-driven configuration of the UK Earth System Model, UKESM1-CH4. 

Previously we explored a zero anthropogenic methane scenario, which focused on attributing the composition, air quality and climate impacts of future anthropogenic methane emissions. Here, we study the potential co-benefits of methane mitigation: reducing NOx and CO emissions. We use SSP1-2.6 emissions pathways for CO and NO in these scenarios. 

The complex interactions between methane, CO, OH and NOx are represented more completely in the emissions-driven model. We calculate the sensitivity of ozone and OH to the CO and NO emissions changes, and their dependence on the methane burden. We also show the impacts on other near-term climate forcers such as aerosols and ozone. 

Global reductions in CO and NO emissions have disproportionate effects in different regions. We present analysis of the regional differences in ozone and OH response, based on the HTAP regions. We demonstrate much greater effects in South and East Asia than in the Europe and North America.