Assessing flood situations and technical adaptation measures in the context of climate change in Ho Chi Minh City

There is typically limited knowledge on the key factors causing critical flood situations in the context of climate change in many regions, including in large cities like Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. It is important to improve our understanding of the causes of flood and how to incorporate flood adaptation measures, especially the integration of technical measures into local climate change adaptation plans. This presentation describes the results and experiences of applying a hydraulic model (MIKE 11, 21 and Flood) for simulating flood situations under different climate change scenarios and integration into the master plan for flood prevention (2008) in HCMC. It was found that the water level in Sai Gon River will not increase under the current climate following completion of Phase 1 of constructing flood prevention infrastructure according to the master plan of 2008. However, under the same flood infrastructure prevention condition, the water level at Phu An station will increase from 1.74 m to 2.28 m under the most extreme scenario of Dau Tieng discharge and climate change without land subsidence. Flood prevention infrastructure was identified as a key factor reducing flooding in HCMC. Further studies are recommended to simulate alternative flood situations by applying the same hydraulic model under the new master plan for flood prevention (2021) in HCMC to support flood adaptation measures and strategies.

Key words: Flooding, hydraulic model, flood prevention, climate change