Modelling of the coastline changes after the realization of the new port of Fiumicino (Latium, Italy) using climate change scenarios.
- 1Laboratory of Experimental Oceanology and Marine Ecology, Department of Ecological and Biological sciences DEB, University of Tuscia, Port of Civitavecchia, Civitavecchia (RM), Italy
- 2Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy
- 3Port Authority System of the Central Northern Tyrrhenian Sea, 00053 Civitavecchia, Italy
The coastal zone with its environmental, climatic and ecological features, provides favourable conditions for urbanization: for a long time, anthropic impact have affected the coastal areas by building ports and impounding river’s flow modification. Considering the potential alterations that urban planning could produce on the natural coastal settings at different spatial and temporal scales, the use of numerical models to foresee the environmental impacts is increasingly necessary.
The present study aims to predict the shoreline evolution in a stretch of coast at the North-eastern Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy), after the realization of the new port of Fiumicino located in the zone influenced by Tiber River flow. To analyse the shoreline-change and beach evolution we used LITPACK (Littoral Transport and Coastline Kinetics), a one-dimensional model which allows to reproduce the dynamic processes of coastal areas. The model was fed with bathymetric, granulometric and Tiber River discharge data, as well as the Mediterranean wave data reanalysis of COPERNICUS catalogue (MEDSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_006_004).
LITPACK was calibrated and validated with shoreline changes estimated in two different timeframe (1990-2005 and 2005-2022) using aerial photos and satellite imageries collected in the entire study area. The numerical model proved to be reliable in simulating the coastline evolution in both timeframes with a mean squared error of 12.30 m (1990-2005) and 9.6 m (2005-2022).
To analyse the coastline evolution after the realization of the new port of Fiumicino, a 30-year simulation has been carried out using a medium severity scenario as according to IPCC (RCP 4.5). The model results indicate that the shoreline evolution rate has undergone a severe erosion, up to 23 m, to the North of the harbour, and a significant accretion to the South up to 18 m.
In this study, the application of the LITPACK model has shown excellent performance in the evaluation of the coastal dynamics processes at high spatial resolution scale, allowing an in-depth analysis of future scenarios of coastal morphology alterations due to the construction of port structures.
How to cite: Madonia, N., Piazzolla, D., Scanu, S., Peviani, M. A., Fersini, G., and Bonamano, S.: Modelling of the coastline changes after the realization of the new port of Fiumicino (Latium, Italy) using climate change scenarios., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13199, 2023.
