Ocean acidity extremes in the northeast Pacific, from multi-decadal trends to mesoscale drivers

Superimposed on long-term ocean acidification are ocean acidity extremes (OAXs), i.e., periods of unusual acidity in the marine environment. Such extremes form through the interplay of the various spatio-temporal scales of variability associated with the ocean’s carbonate system, ranging from multi-decadal trends to subseasonal dynamics. Using a high-resolution regional ocean model coupled to a biogeochemical-ecosystem model (ROMS-BEC) we assess the role of five mechanisms associated with different scales of variability – namely atmospheric CO₂ rise, the decadal North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the interannual El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal upwelling, and mesoscale eddies – in the occurrence of OAXs in a 300 km nearshore band along the U.S. West Coast and the Alaskan coast over the period 1984 to 2019. We find that the annual fraction of the upper 250 m depth that is hit by OAXs increases at a rate of 0.16 % units.μatm^-1 driven by the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. In addition, our analysis reveals that Pacific climate variability substantially modulates OAXs occurrence on interannual timescales. The fraction of the upper 250 m depth that is hit by OAXs increases by 0.53 % units per unit decrease in the ENSO index, and 0.39 % units per unit increase in the NPGO index. Last but not least, we find that seasonal upwelling and mesoscale cyclonic eddies are key regional drivers of OAXs along the U.S. West Coast. Our results show that coastal upwelling forms intense and shallow OAXs near the coast, while mesoscale cyclonic eddies drive large and long-lasting OAXs that propagate over hundreds of kilometers from the coast to the offshore. Altogether, our results quantify the respective imprint of five mechanisms associated with different scales of variability on the occurrence of OAXs in coastal regions. This knowledge opens new perspectives for improving the predictability of OAXs in the highly productive coastal regions of the northeast Pacific.