EGU23-13259
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13259
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Impact of land use change on local climate: regional climate model sensitivity experiments & scenarios within a multi-model set-up over Belgium

Nicolas Ghilain1,2, Xavier Fettweis1, Sebastien Doutreloup1, Bert Van Schaeybroek2, Josip Bajkovic1, Rafiq Hamdi2, and Piet Termonia2,3
Nicolas Ghilain et al.
  • 1University of Liege, Climatology Lab, Liege, Belgium
  • 2Royal Meteorological Institute, Meteorological and Climatological Research, Brussels, Belgium (nicolas.ghilain@meteo.be)
  • 3Ghent University, Department of Physics and astronomy, Ghent, Belgium

Testing the sensitivity of regional climate models to the land cover/use changes in temperate regions is a preliminary step in the quantification of the respective contributions from human induced land surface changes and greenhouse gases emissions over Europe. Recently, the LUCAS-FPS (https://ms.hereon.de/cordex_fps_lucas/) initiative from Euro-CORDEX(https://www.euro-cordex.net/) has proposed a common framework and a time varying land cover database (Hoffmann et al., 2022) to build an ensemble of models responding to land use scenarios for the 21st century and ultimately to sort out the signal emerging from the impact of land use changes over Europe. In the meantime, coordinated experiments have been tested at higher resolution over Belgium for national and regional climate services. The present contribution focuses on the plans of coordinated experiments over Belgium (and Europe) with two regional climate models -MAR (Fettweis et al, 2013) and ALARO (Termonia et al, 2018)- :

i) the methodological aspects developed to make the simulations comparable and more in line with Euro-Cordex & LUCAS-FPS requirements ,

ii) the first results from the simulations over these domains by focusing on the changes in key climate variables for the historical past period used for verification and for a scenario of strong land cover change.

 

Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013.

 

Hoffmann, P., Reinhart, V., Rechid, D. (2021) LUCAS LUC historical land use and land cover change dataset (Version 1.0). World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ.

 

Termonia, P., Fischer, C., Bazile, E., Bouyssel, F., Brožková, R., Bénard, P., Bochenek, B., Degrauwe, D., Derková, M., El Khatib, R., Hamdi, R., Mašek, J., Pottier, P., Pristov, N., Seity, Y., Smolíková, P., Španiel, O., Tudor, M., Wang, Y., Wittmann, C., and Joly, A.: The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 257–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-257-2018, 2018.

How to cite: Ghilain, N., Fettweis, X., Doutreloup, S., Van Schaeybroek, B., Bajkovic, J., Hamdi, R., and Termonia, P.: Impact of land use change on local climate: regional climate model sensitivity experiments & scenarios within a multi-model set-up over Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13259, 2023.