Assessment of Long-Term and Spatio-temporal Changes between Rice Productivity and Irrigation Water Demand in South and North Korea based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) Scenario

Climate change exacerbates food and water security, and it has been extended to hunger and malnutrition globally. In 2019, The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced North Korea was a food shortage country, and it has continued today. In South Korea, an agricultural drought has occurred irregularly since the 2010s by climate change and it impacts both crop quality and quantity negatively. Since these agricultural droughts and food shortages have increased gradually, in terms of climate change, agricultural risk must be addressed at the national level and long-term perspective. To address the agricultural risk quantitively in South and North Korea, rice productivity and Irrigation water demand are set as proxy variables of food and water variation in the agricultural domain. The overall methodology is divided into three-stage. 1) Classification of rice paddy area on the Korean Peninsula using remote sensing data based on machine learning algorithms, 2) Crop simulation using EPIC model on representative years and calibration/validation of the model, 3) multi-temporal crop simulation based on SSP scenario until the 2100s. The rice productivity and irrigation water demand matrix based on the scenario will be calculated and it will be used as a proxy variable in the water-food nexus. Consequently, the results will be extended to agricultural risk assessment on the national level-based Water-Food Nexus approach to address the Sustain Development Goals (SDGs) in Korean Peninsula