Data Review for Assessing Vulnerability to Abnormal Cold Wave in Industrial Sector due to Climate Change

Climate change is becoming a serious global problem every year as it intensifies, and increasing uncertainty and frequency of extreme weather is part of the problem that is getting worse. The Earth is getting warmer overall, but the frequency of extreme cold waves is not decreasing, which can be a risk in many sectors. On February 2021, the worst cold outbreak in the United States has stopped the electricity supply to 5.5 million households in 18 states including factories as Samsung Austin Semiconductor. Factories, especially semiconductor-chip-factories, are sensitive to stabilized power supply, and unstable power supply might cause huge financial losses. Those unexpected extreme climate events hinder the estimation of future electricity demand, which can lower the accuracy of expected demand and interfere with secure power supply. Also, sudden snowfall and cold temperature can cause roads to freeze, disturbing the smooth transportation of materials and products. In this study, the unpredictability of cold waves was assumed as a hazard, and evaluating the adequacy of data to assess vulnerability to abnormal cold wave in industrial sector was done. The study was conducted in South Korea.

This study was done by first defining the abnormal cold wave using the difference between normal and observed temperatures during winter season in Korea (November to April). Then, the relations between the power supply reserve ratio and the degree of abnormal cold wave was identified using regression models. The degree was decided as distance of observed from normal temperature data. Also, chronically frozen section of roads provided by Ministry of the Interior and Safety(ROK), was also included as data for assessing vulnerability. Categorizing an assessment was approached by following the IPCC risk assessment methodology, which classified chronically frozen sections of roads as ‘exposure’, the degree of abnormal cold wave as ‘vulnerability’ from stable power supply, and cold weather itself as ‘climate.’ As a result, compared to SSP1-2.6 scenario, frequency and degree of abnormal cold wave has slightly increased overall in the scenario SSP5-8.5. Also, chip factories in Cheongju, Yongin and Icheon for example, has at least three chronically frozen sections within 5 kilometers from the factories, average 7 sections within 10 kilometers. This study has a point in focusing on the non-decreasing, unusual cold waves despite the increasing temperature and reviewing data before assessing vulnerability of cold wave in industry. The result may be useful by offering additional methods and categories in evaluating vulnerabilities and risks to the party concerned, which can be used by working groups in making climate change adaptation plans in industrial sectors.

 

Keywords: climate change, cold wave, IPCC risk assessment, vulnerability, industrial sector, stable power supply, SSP scenario

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through “Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime (RE202201934)”, Funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE).