The San Bartolo lava flow field, Stromboli volcano, Italy: Simulation of the most recent historic flank eruption (2 kyr) affecting the inhabited area aimed at hazard assessment

The San Bartolo eruption is the last flank eruption occurred at Stromboli volcano about 2 ka ago on the NE flank of the island. Despite its importance in being the most recent example of flank activity outside the barren Sciara del Fuoco slope, where the recent activity concentrated, some important volcanological data, such as the duration and lava volume have not yet been provided. Here, we present a new simulation of the San Bartolo eruption carried out using a combination of field analyses and numerical modelling. In particular, we used the CL-HOTSAT satellite monitoring system to estimate the effusion rate and erupted volume of the 2002-03 eruption, which formed a similar lava flow field extending from about 600 m in elevation to the coast. These were used as input of the physics-based model GPUFLOW to reproduce the emplacement dynamics of the San Bartolo lava flow. The aim is to reconstruct the sequence of events and infer a possible duration and impact of the eruption. Our results can provide a useful scenario should a flank eruption occur in the future, a possibility that was close to happening in 1998, when the ground deformation stations revealed a lateral intrusion in the shallow supply system of the volcano.