Comparison and Future Projection for Rainfall Quantile based on CMIP6 and CMIP5: Focusing on the Seomjingang River Basin

This study attempts to estimate the extreme rainfall quantiles using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In general, applied climate change research is carried out using numerical simulation data from various general climate models (GCMs). In this study, the precipitation data were obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 webpages of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). For the same GCM models, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) were compared. The simple quantile mapping (SQM) method was applied for bias correction, and the at-site frequency analysis was performed for rainfall quantile estimation. In addition, the L-moments approach was applied to estimate the parameters, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed as the appropriate probability distribution. As a result, rainfall quantiles were estimated for each same GCM, and the change effects of different scenarios in the study area were quantitatively compared.