EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Hydrological model calibration in high streamflow extremes climate change studies

Diego Avesani1, Aldo Fiori2, Alberto Bellin1, and Bruno Majone1
Diego Avesani et al.
  • 1University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, Trento, Italy (
  • 2Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, 00154 Rome, Italy

Studies on the effects of climate change on hydrological extremes frequently use hydrological models whose parameters are determined through calibration techniques utilizing observed meteorological data as input force. However, when climate models are applied, this procedure result in a biased evaluation of the probability distribution of high streamflow extremes. As an alternative, we present a methodology called "Hydrological Calibration of eXtremes" (HyCoX), which involves maximizing the likelihood that the predicted and observed high streamflow extremes belong to the same statistical population by means of hydrological model calibrations driven by climate model output.

The application of HYPERstreamHS, a distributed hydrological model, to the Adige River watershed (southeastern Alps, Italy), shows that this technique retains statistical coherence and produce accurate quantiles of the yearly maximum streamflow.

How to cite: Avesani, D., Fiori, A., Bellin, A., and Majone, B.: Hydrological model calibration in high streamflow extremes climate change studies, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1409,, 2023.