Offshore wind energy climate projections for the European region

The wind energy sector is experiencing a solid expansion towards the open sea, where higher-quality resources are available. This tendency is slowed down by the uncertainties in metocean characterization, with the wind playing a significant role as it represents both an action and a resource for the wind plant. The present study aims to investigate the climate change impact on the marine wind conditions, focusing on mean and extreme values.

Atmospheric circulation patterns over the European seas are classified based on combinations of the atmospheric sea level pressure and the directional wind speed data from the ERA5 reanalysis (1985-2015). These present climate patterns are then used to assess the performance of several General Circulation Model simulations from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) during the present climate. The best-performing models are then analyzed to provide projections of mean and extreme wind conditions in multiple shared socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4-5, and SSP5-8.5) and future horizons (2030-2060 and 2700-2100).

Results show a general decrease in the mean offshore wind speed over the European region, more intense in the Mediterranean Sea, while extreme wind speed will increase up to 3% along the Atlantic coast of Europe. The southeastern Atlantic coast appears to be favored in the analyzed climate change scenarios, as the extreme events are projected to reduce their intensity, while the wind resource is not expected to vary significantly.