EGU23-14292, updated on 30 Oct 2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14292
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Bias correction of climate models using observations over Antarctica.

Jeremy Carter1, Erick Chacón Montalván1, and Amber Leeson2
Jeremy Carter et al.
  • 1Lancaster University, Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (j.carter10@lancaster.ac.uk)
  • 2Lancaster University, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (j.carter10@lancaster.ac.uk)

Regional Climate Models (RCM) are the primary source of climate data available for impact studies over Antarctica. These climate-models experience significant, large-scale biases over Antarctica for variables such as snowfall, surface temperature and melt. Correcting for these biases is desirable for impact models being driven by meteorological data that aim to produce optimal estimates of for example surface run-off and ice discharge. Typical approaches to bias correction often neglect the handling of uncertainties in parameter estimates and don’t account for the different supports of climate-model and observed data. Here a fully Bayesian approach using latent Gaussian processes is proposed for bias correction, where parameter uncertainties are propagated through the model. Advantages of this approach are demonstrated by bias-correcting RCM output for near-surface air temperature over Antarctica.

How to cite: Carter, J., Chacón Montalván, E., and Leeson, A.: Bias correction of climate models using observations over Antarctica., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14292, 2023.