Decadal prediction along the Western Irish Coast

Over the last decade there have been vast improvements in the field of global decadal climate prediction; however, on a regional scale there is still limited confidence. Previous studies with the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) have demonstrated that it can replicate water properties on a regional scale in the North Sea and Barents Sea.

In this study we investigate the prediction skill at depth along the Western Irish Coast using the MPI-ESM. For this we compare Hindcast simulations with Historical simulations. The employed Hindcast simulations consists of an ensemble mean of 16 members over the time frame 1961-2008 with a 2-to-5-year lead time. The Historical simulations over the same time frame also consist of an ensemble mean of 16 members.

For this contribution we investigate further the MPI-ESM predictability at depth for temperature and salinity along three transects that influence the Western Irish Coast at the Extended Ellet Line northwest, Galway Transect west, and Goban Spur southwest. A lead time analysis determines the improvement of prediction skill by initialisation. We discuss potential applications for this work in areas such as fisheries, coastal security, and marine leisure, for Ireland and its surrounding seas.