Linking early warnings to early actions through system approach: learnings from pilots in Western Balkans and Türkiye

Ensuring that early warning information is effectively translated into anticipatory/ early actions is a pressing challenge that requires partnership and coordination of multiple actors at different territorial levels. This issue has been investigated in the framework of the IPA Floods and Fires program (https://www.ipaff.eu/) for the Western Balkans and Türkiye in 7 pilot studies. An operational approach has been developed to guide key institutions in planning anticipatory actions in the event of a flood based on early warnings, considering EWS in its full length of value cycle.

The approach is grounded on the concept that an Early Warning System (EWS) should be an “integrated system” comprising hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities, systems and processes” (WMO, 2016, UNDRR, 2009). A system approach enables to intersect and interlink all the elements and actors of EWS at different territorial levels, including local administrations, which are typically the first responder in case of a flood due to their proximity to at-risk communities.

The approach consisted in few key steps part of gradual capacity development process. The first important step was the context analysis at Country level carried out through questionnaires, scoping tools on EWS, and interactive workshops, which informed a comprehensive stakeholder mapping, guided the constitution of multi-territorial and multi-sectorial working groups (from National Hydrometeorological Services, to River basin and water agencies and civil protection authorities at all the levels). The second step was the design and implementation of a Command Post Exercise (CPX) project to test coordination and communication among all the EWS actors, as well as the activation of the emergency plans and procedures in response to warnings from the national to the local level. This step was instrumental to strengthen inter-agency familiarity and functional capacities of the system, to identify barriers for effective operations, and raise awareness on strategies for EW-EA linkage. The third and final step of the proposed approach consisted in a lessons learned analysis, recognizing gaps and capacities to be strengthened

The implementation of this approach in 7 pilot cases in Western Balkans and Türkiye has highlighted several benefits and challenges, including the effort to achieve a broader and regional perspective by transcending country-specific results. Specifically, the lesson learnt analysis outlined the base of a set of criteria, built on the regional experience, for a general and co-designed path to move towards the integration of early warnings into emergency response planning and civil protection actions. Key learnings and discussions among the involved parties in the approach supported the identification of preliminary recommendations and effective practices. The implementation of pilot cases highlighted that engaging local administrations and establishing cross-institutional partnerships are essential for effective preparedness and the overall strength of the system, confirming that an EWS can be completely hampered by its weakest component.