Assessing the predictability of droughts through seasonal forecasts

Atmospheric circulations at the mid-latitudes are marked by circulation regimes, structures evolving in space very slowly and persisting over time. Their persistence and duration in a context such as Europe's, could lead to weather patterns, such as heat waves and drought, that have a­­ major impact on many socio-economic sectors. Forecasts at seasonal timescale are becoming then crucial to plan or give relevant indicators for societal applications. Predictability of such events could be of great use in further applications related to energy and management of water supplies. Also, this may provide useful insights to understanding the increase in frequency and intensity of these extreme events and their location.

The late purpose of this study is to investigate the predictability of European droughts in a forecast range of 1-3 months. To this aim, drought events are firstly identified, and state-of-the-art seasonal forecast products are analysed to compute the skill for targeted drought-related climate variables and/or circulation patterns. Observational datasets, high-resolution reanalysis and latest generation satellite observations will be used for the characterization of drought events and the forecast validation.