Sensitivity of ozone return dates to shared socioeconomic pathway in CMIP6 models
- 1Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- 2National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- 3Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Following the success of the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric ozone is projected to recover over the coming decades as halogenated ozone depleting substances decline. However, future projections of stratospheric ozone recovery are also dependent on assumptions made about the emissions of other gases such as CO2, CH4, and N2O. As a result, the pathway of ozone recovery is sensitive to the choice of future emissions scenario. Here we explore ozone recovery under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in 6 CMIP6 models that include interactive chemistry schemes: CESM2-WACCM, CNRM-ESM2-1, GFDL-ESM4, GISS-E2-1-G, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-O-LL. We explore the impact of different SSP scenarios on projections of ozone recovery, the date at which total column ozone returns to historic values, and the healing of the ozone hole. Additionally, we compare global mean return dates with regional return dates and explore the different processes affecting the timing of ozone recovery in these different regions.
How to cite: Keeble, J., Hassler, B., and Schlund, M.: Sensitivity of ozone return dates to shared socioeconomic pathway in CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14758, 2023.
