EGU23-15038, updated on 24 May 2023
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme weather events over Europe

Tugba Ozturk1, Emine Canbaz2,3, Başak Bilgin3,4, Dominic Matte5, Mehmet Levent Kurnaz3,6, and Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen7,8
Tugba Ozturk et al.
  • 1Department of Physics, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Isik University, 34980 Istanbul, Türkiye (
  • 2Department of Computational Science and Engineering, Boğaziçi University, İstanbul, Türkiye (
  • 3Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, İstanbul, Türkiye (
  • 4Department of Sustainable Tourism Management, Boğaziçi University, İstanbul, Türkiye (
  • 5Ouranos, 550 Rue Sherbrooke W., West Tower, 19th Floor, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada (
  • 6Department of Physics, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Türkiye (
  • 7Physics of Ice, Department of Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark (
  • 8NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Norway

This work investigates the scalability of wet and dry persisting condition patterns over the European domain with global warming levels. For this aim, we have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional climate projections at 0.11° grid-mesh for daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation to analyze future changes in extreme weather events addressing climate warming levels of 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C, respectively. A simple scaling with the annual mean global mean temperature change modeled by the driving GCM is applied. The annual minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNN) is found to increase more compared to the annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXX) at the end of the century. We also identify the emergence of the scaled patterns of minimum and maximum temperatures and wet and dry persisting conditions about certain extreme weather indices. The emergence of the scaled patterns of TNN occurs from around 2040, whereas TXX pattern is emerging around 2050. Individual GCM-RCM pairs tend to have stable spatial patterns since then for both indices. The ensemble mean patterns are emerging earlier than the individual models.

This study was funded by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) ARDEB 3501 Grant No 121Y587.

How to cite: Ozturk, T., Canbaz, E., Bilgin, B., Matte, D., Kurnaz, M. L., and Christensen, J. H.: The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme weather events over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15038,, 2023.