Climate risk assessment for cereal and livestock sectors in Mediterranean areas

Assessing climate-related risks on key economic sectors is of paramount relevance to inform policy makers and support the decision making process in designing adaptation plans and strategies to cope with climate change. Agriculture in the Mediterranean area is already experiencing negative impacts of climate changes and urgent adaptation actions are required to increase the resilience of agricultural systems. This study applied the impact chain approach to assess the expected climate risks for the cereal and livestock sectors to support the development of the Regional Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SRACC) of Sardinia (Italy) Region. Statistical socio-economic indicators were integrated with crop simulation models output and climate change scenarios to 2050, to investigate the exposure, vulnerability and hazard components according to the IPCC framework. The results were elaborated at the regional and municipal level to provided information for policy-makers at different administrative levels. This information allows the identification of the areas with greatest impact and the most critical aspects for which to focus adaptation efforts.