Future characteristics of tropical cyclones over CORDEX East Asia domain in Multi-RCMs under the SSP scenarios

Tropical cyclones (TCs), which often form over the western North Pacific (WNP), have a large socioeconomic impact and result in destructive damages in East Asian countries. Therefore, it is critical to estimate future changes in TCs characteristics under the global warming. In this study, future characteristics of TCs using five regional climate models (RCMs) (i.g., RegCM4, GRIMs, WRF, CCLM, and HadGEM3-RA) were investigated in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain. Five RCMs were forced by the UK Earth System Model (UKESM) under the historical and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The simulation experiments were conducted at about 25-km horizontal resolution. The multi-RCM ensemble mean was used for analysis to reduce the uncertainty of a single RCM. In the historical period (1985-2014) during the TC season (June-November), the ensembled RCMs properly reproduced the TC genesis over the WNP comparable to the best track data. In the future climate, the RCMs tended to migrate the core region of TCs genesis more northward compared in the present climate. This migration could be related to weakening of vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes, due to decreased meridional sea surface temperature gradient.