EGU23-15775
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15775
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

A seamless hydrologic forecasting system for Germany

Husain Najafi, Rakovec Oldrich, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Stephan Thober, and Luis Samaniego
Husain Najafi et al.
  • Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH - UFZ, Computational Hydro Systems, Leipzig, Germany (husain.najafi@ufz.de)

An experimental hydrological forecasting system has been developed for Germany (https://www.ufz.de/HS2SForcasts4Germany) at high resolution (1 km). Since early 2021, the hydrological forecasting system provides operational ensemble forecasts for soil moisture droughts at sub-seasonal time scale (HS2S). In the next year, it will be upgraded to streamflow and inundation areas. The mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM- www.ufz.de/mhm) with the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization scheme [1,2,3] is used to simulate hydrological forecasts across German catchments. This model is forced with the extended large atmospheric ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The soil moisture index is updated twice per week with associated uncertainties of the initial atmospheric conditions. The initial conditions are obtained with the DWD precipitation and temperature data, similar to the German Drought Monitor (www.ufz.de/droughtmonitor). The hydrological forecasting system was also evaluated for 2021 summer flood in west Germany [4]. The system has shown promising results in flood forecasting as well. This system is based on the EDgE system [5] and can easily be developed across other regions around the world.

Refrences

[1] Samaniego L., Kumar R., & Attinger, S. (2010). Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale. Water Resour. Res., 46,W05523, doi:10.1029/2008WR007327. WRR Editors' Choice Award 2010

[2] Samaniego L., et al. (2021). mesoscale Hydrologic Model. Zenodo. doi:10.5281/zenodo.1069202, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1069202

[3] Kumar, R., Samaniego, L., & Attinger, S. (2013). Implications of distributed hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and locations. Water Resour. Res., 49(1), 360-379. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012195.

[4] Najafi, H., Rakovec, O., Kumar Shrestha, P., Thober, S., & Samaniego, L. (2022). Post-Assessment of ECMWF-mHM ensemble flood forecasting for 2021 summer flood in west Germany. 2022 AGU Fall meeting. Chicago, IL & online everywhere.

[5] Samaniego et al. (2019). Hydrological Forecasts and Projections for Improved Decision-Making in the Water Sector in Europe. BAMS, 100(12), 2451–2472. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0274.1

How to cite: Najafi, H., Oldrich, R., Shrestha, P. K., Thober, S., and Samaniego, L.: A seamless hydrologic forecasting system for Germany, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15775, 2023.