Urban Flood Forecast using an Open Source Coupled 1D1D SWMM Model for Real-Time Applications

Due to climate change, heavy rainfall events are occurring more frequently and at a higher rate. At the same time, the sewer system is often not designed to handle such a large amount of precipitation, which often leads to flooding of certain critical areas. However, modern sensor technology for monitoring the filling and flow rates in the sewer system, as well as for monitoring and forecasting rainfall probabilities, including quantity information, form a good basis for developing modern multifunctional early warning systems, which can serve as an aid for decisions on action. Urban water drainage systems represent complex networks with nonlinear dynamics and different types of interactions. This yields an involved modelling problem for which different off-line simulation approaches are available. Nevertheless, these approaches cannot be used for real-time simulations, i.e., running in parallel to weather now- and forecasts and enabling the monitoring and automatic control of urban water drainage systems. Alternative approaches, used commonly for automation purposes, involve parameterized linear delay systems, which can be used in real-time but lack the necessary level of detail, which is required for adequate flood risk prognostics. Given this setup, an approach for the effective modelling of detailed water drainage systems for real-time applications implemented with the open-source Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) software is addressed and exemplified for a part of the water drainage system of the city of Flensburg in northern Germany. Additionally, a freely available early-warning system prototype is introduced and used to combine weather forecast information on a 2-h prediction horizon with the developed model and available measurements. This prototype is subsequently used for data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for the considered area in Flensburg. The project presented here is part of the NEPTUN project. NEPTUN is financed by Interreg Deutschland-Danmark with means from the European Regional Development Fund.