Monitoring spatio-temporal evolution of aseismic slip along the Ismetpasa segment between 2016-2023 with GNSS measurements

Aseismic slip (creep) is critical above the onset, propagation, and time of occurrence of large earthquakes on active faults. Also elastic strain in the crust between large earthquakes is controlled by the aseismic slip along the active faults. Key characteristics of aseismic slip behavior is that it is typically very slow and gradual, with the faults moving only a few millimeters or centimeters per year. This type of movement is often difficult to detect and measure, and may not be immediately apparent to observers.

Although it has been determined that the İsmetpaşa segment of the North Anatolian Fault has been slipped aseismically since 1970, without producing an earthquake, there is no reliable and detailed information about the spatial and temporal changes of this movement. After it was first recognized by Ambraseys in 1970, the creep movement is monitored by the researchers with terrestrial and campaign type GNSS measurements in the 6-point geodetic network established in Hamamlı. InSAR observations has made it possible to derive maps of ground velocities over the past 20 years that indicate aseismic slip is present along a ~100 km portion of the fault. Additionally, the aseismic slip rate changes spatially along the strike, peaking at 15–24 km to the east of Ismetpasa. Furthermore, InSAR time series and creepmeter measurements shows that aseismic slip in the Ismetpasa region behaves episodically rather than continuously, with stationary periods alternated with transient episodes of relatively rapid aseismic slip. These observations raise questions about how slip accommodates tectonic stress along the fault, which has important implications for hazard along the seismogenic zone.

To answer these questions, it is necessary to expand terrestrial observation capacity along the creeping segment and to conduct a detailed examination of the change in creep accelerations by associating it with seismological activity. We established ISMENET -Ismetpasa Continuous GNSS Network- in July 2016 to monitor spatial and temporal variations in the aseismic slip rate and to detect slow slip events along the fault. ISMENET stations are located approximately 120 kilometers along strike. Stations are located within 200m to 10 km of the fault to investigate the shallow, fine spatiotemporal behavior of aseismic slip. In addition to this network, 19 GNSS stations belonging to the TUSAGA-Aktif network located in the vicinity of the İsmetpaşa segment have been added to this network. To reduce the influence of non-tectonic noises, we analyze the GNSS time series to extract the signature of creep movement using Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA). Initial estimations shows that creep rates change along the fault between 6-8 mm/yr at a 4-5 km depth 10 km east side of the Ismetpaşa town. On the western edge of the Ismetpaşa segment between Bayramören and Ilgaz towns creep rate decreases ~3-4 mm/yr.

In this study, we examine the results of the temporal and spatial variation of the aseismic slip between 2016-2023 from the GNSS stations located in the immediate vicinity of the İsmetpaşa segment.

Ismetpasa, Aseismic slip, GNSS, M-SSA, NAFZ