The possible association of high energy electron precipitations and South Pacific tectonic events

An M7.3 seismic event occurred on the Kermadec Islands (New Zealand) on June 15, 2019. It was investigated by the high-energy electron detectors of the NOAA and METOP satellites since its destructive energy could interact with the ionosphere and the Inner Van Allen Belts. Moreover, the Tonga subduction area was affected on November 11, 2022, by a strong superficial M7.3 earthquake, near the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, whose last eruption at the beginning of 2022 represented an exceptional lithosphere-ionosphere coupling. For all the events, particle precipitation phenomena were observed. Concerning the earthquakes, the electron bursts were measured from a few hours to some days before the events while for the eruption the electron bursts were observed subsequent to the paroxysmal phase. Since the subduction area and its neighbouring regions are intensely active, we are searching for a possible connection between ionospheric events and these tectonic events to forecast the consequent natural hazards. After the recent discovery of the connections between electron bursts and successive earthquakes in the Western and Eastern Pacific (Fidani, 2021; https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.673105; Fidani. 2022; https://doi.org/10.3390/app122010528), we focus on the statistical correlation between Southern Pacific earthquakes and high-energy electrons. Due to this statistical correlation, we are able to find a conditional probability of a strong earthquake given an ionospheric observation to mitigate the associated risk.