EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Building Storylines of Future Atmospheric River Floods

Helen Griffith1,3 and Hannah Cloke1,2,3
Helen Griffith and Hannah Cloke
  • 1University of Reading, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Reading, United Kingdom (
  • 2University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom
  • 3European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom

A storyline is defined as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events or of plausible possible futures (Shepherd et al., 2018). It has advantages in effective risk communication and adaption, as it moves the emphasis away from probability across to plausibility (Butler et al., 2020). Working as part of the EvoFlood (Quantifying the Evolution of Flood hazard and risk across a changing world) project, this work presents a novel methodology for estimating future hydrology based on not only climatic drivers, but the wider impacts of dams, river regulation and changing land-use. Grounded in historical atmospheric river floods, storylines are extracted from the large ensemble reforecast dataset provided by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS;

Butler, J. R. A., Bergseng, A. M., Bohensky, E., Pedde, S., Aitkenhead, M., & Hamden, R. (2020). Adapting scenarios for climate adaptation: Practitioners’ perspectives on a popular planning method. Environmental Science & Policy, 104, 13–19.

Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., & Zenghelis, D. A. (2018). Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, 151(3–4), 555–571.

How to cite: Griffith, H. and Cloke, H.: Building Storylines of Future Atmospheric River Floods, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17254,, 2023.