Evaluating the Performance of WRF-Solar Model for 72-Hour Ahead Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting in West Africa: A Case Study of Ghana
- 1Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86159 Augsburg, Germany.
- 2Campus Alpin, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- 3International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), University of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, 53757 Sankt Augustin, Germany
Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is crucial for the integration of solar energy into the
power grid, power system planning, and the operation of solar power plants. The Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with its solar radiation (WRF-Solar) extension, has
been used to forecast solar irradiance in various regions worldwide. However, the application
of the WRF-Solar model for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting in West Africa,
specifically in Ghana, has not been studied. This study aims to evaluate the performance of
the WRF-Solar model for GHI forecasting in Ghana, focusing on 3 health centers (Kologo,
Kumasi and Akwatia) for the year 2021. We applied a two one-way nested domain (D1=15
km and D2=3 km) to investigate the ability of the WRF solar model to forecast GHI up to 72
hours in advance under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary
conditions were taken from the ECMWF operational forecasts. In addition, the optical aerosol
depth (AOD) data at 550 nm from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
were considered. The study uses statistical metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), root mean
square error (RMSE), to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model with the
observational data obtained from automatic weather stations in the three health centers in
Ghana. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of the capabilities and
limitations of the WRF-Solar model for forecasting GHI in West Africa, particularly in
Ghana, and provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation
and grid integration towards optimized management of in the region.
Keywords: WRF-Solar; Global horizontal irradiance; Forecasting; West Africa; Ghana
How to cite: Sawadogo, W., Fersch, B., Bliefernicht, J., Meilinger, S., and Kunstmann, H.: Evaluating the Performance of WRF-Solar Model for 72-Hour Ahead Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting in West Africa: A Case Study of Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17484, 2023.
