EGU23-17590, updated on 29 Jun 2023
EGU General Assembly 2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Simulating Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity During the Deglaciation

Clay Tabor1, Marcus Lofverstrom2, Isabel Montañez3, Jessica Oster4, and Colin Zarzycki5
Clay Tabor et al.
  • 1Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Connecticut
  • 2Dept. of Geosciences, University of Arizona
  • 3Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis
  • 4Dept. of Earth and Environmental Science, Vanderbilt University
  • 5Dept. of Meteorology & Atmospheric Science, Penn State University

How tropical cyclones respond to climate change remains an open question. Due to recent increases in computing power and climate model resolution, it is now possible to explicitly simulate tropical cyclone genesis and life cycle over long temporal and spatial scales. So far, most high-resolution simulations have explored tropical cyclones under present-day and future climate conditions. There has been little work on tropical cyclone activity in past climates. Here, we help fill in this gap with high resolution simulations of the last deglaciation including the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21-ka), Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16-ka), and Preindustrial (PI; 1850 CE). We use the water isotope tracer enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (iCESM1.3) at ~0.25° horizontal resolution to simulate climate and the TempestExtremes algorithm to track tropical cyclone features. Our preliminary results show intriguing spatial changes in tropical cyclone activity at the LGM relative to PI. The Atlantic and Indian basins produce less tropical cyclones while the Western Pacific produces more tropical cyclones at the LGM. Furthermore, tropical cyclone frequency decreases in the southern hemisphere but remains similar in the northern hemisphere. The LGM simulation also produces fewer strong storms (greater than 49 m/s). Further investigation will explore the physical mechanisms for the simulated tropical cyclone responses during the deglaciation as well as the effects of freshwater flux into the North Atlantic on tropical cyclone activity.

How to cite: Tabor, C., Lofverstrom, M., Montañez, I., Oster, J., and Zarzycki, C.: Simulating Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity During the Deglaciation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17590,, 2023.