Toward a hybrid tropical cyclone global model

The future evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a warming world is an important issue, considering their potential socio-economic impacts on the areas hit by these phenomena. Previous studies provide robust responses about the future increase in intensity and in the global proportion of major TCs (Category 4–5). On the other hand, high uncertainty is associated to a projected future decrease in global TCs frequency and to potential changes in TC tracks and translation speed.

Risk management and regulatory actions require more robust quantification in how the climate change affects TCs dynamics.  A probabilistic hybrid TC model based upon statistical and climate models, physically coherent with TCs dynamics, is being built to investigate the potential impacts of climate change. Here, we provide preliminary results, in terms of present climate reconstruction (1980-2021) and future projections (2022-2060) of cyclogenesis locations and TC tracks, based on different statistical models, such as logistic and multiple linear regressions and random forest.  Physical predictors associated with the TC formation and motion and produced by reanalysis (ERA5) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble are considered in this study.