Determining Vulnerable Areas to Warming and Drought in Africa and Morocco Based on CMIP6 Projections: Towards the Implementation of Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

While Africa has contributed negligibly to global emissions, it stands out as the world's most vulnerable region, owing to the continent's current low levels of socioeconomic growth and, thus, a lack of resources to afford the goods and services required to recover from the worst of the changing climate effects. Temperature and rainfall projections in disaster-prone areas are therefore critical for planning climate change mitigation and boosting our adaptation capacity to respond effectively. This study makes a contribution in this direction by identifying vulnerable areas to warming and drought in Africa, with a particular focus on Morocco—whose conditional goal, which will be attained with international assistance, is rated as "almost sufficient" but is not yet in alignment with the Paris Agreement's goal—, taking into account diverse levels of political efforts to slow down and adapt to climate change, known as the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), using the outputs of the global climate model, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 [1]. Temperature and precipitation projections over Africa indicate significant geographical variability in the twenty-first century. The northern part of Africa (NAF), the Sahara (SAH), and South West Africa (SWAF) are expected to undergo increasing warming, followed by Central Africa (CAF), North East Africa (NEAF), and South-East Africa (SEAF). When compared to other regions, West Africa (WAF) and Central East Africa (CEAF) will have the lowest mean annual temperature values. The SAH, NEAF, and CEAF are projected to get more precipitation than the NAF, WAF, SWAF, and SEAF, which are expected to endure severe drought conditions. The emission scenario has a large influence on the quantity of rain that falls over Central Africa (CAF), which has increased precipitation under the strong forcing scenario. The amount of greenhouse gases emitted globally over the next few decades (i.e., emission scenario) and the level of uncertainty in Morocco's climate sensitivity to those emissions (i.e., climate model, time horizon) will determine the extent of climate change in the next few decades. We estimate that significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit Morocco's annual average temperature rise to 1.07 °C (resp. 1.72 °C) in the near- (resp. long-) term. However, if these emissions are not greatly decreased, yearly average temperatures may rise by 1.25 °C (resp. 6.25 °C) by the end of the century. Morocco's spatio-seasonal warming pattern is highest in the mountainous areas of the Rif and Atlas Mountains and lessens along the Atlantic and Mediterranean Seas. The findings also point to a significant gradual emergence of humid climate in the South, as well as a migration of aridity to the North, East, and West. 

[1] Bouramdane, A.-A. Assessment of CMIP6 Multi-Model Projections Worldwide: Which Regions Are Getting Warmer and Are Going through a Drought in Africa and Morocco? What Changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6? Sustainability 2023, 15, 690. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010690