SST-driven changes in cloud radiative heating in RCEMIP models and observations

The interactions of ice particles with radiative fluxes in tropical high clouds substantially alter the heating structure within the atmosphere, also known as cloud radiative heating (CRH). CRH influences the upper-tropospheric temperature structure and thus modulates the strength and position of tropical and extratropical circulations. Moreover, it influences the life cycle of tropical high clouds through longwave destabilization of the cloud layer and lifting of clouds by absorption of both shortwave and longwave radiation by ice crystals. A possible change of CRH, for example, due to global warming, can substantially alter the tropical climate.Despite a large body of work that has explored interactions between clouds and radiation, responses of CRH to global warming remain largely unknown. We therefore use idealized SAM cloud-resolving model simulations, the RCEMIP multimodel dataset, and a 15-year-long satellite-derived CRH dataset to explore changes in CRH under different sea surface temperatures.

To a first approximation, the upper tropospheric CRH shifts nearly isothermally to a higher altitude level following a surface warming. In addition, upper-tropospheric CRH in 27 of the 32 analyzed models increase by 0.5 to 10%/K, with a mean value of about 3%/K. Interestingly, the CRH increases despite decreases in upper tropospheric ice water content and cloud fraction. The increase in CRH can be to a large extent explained by an increase in atmospheric transmissivity due to a 2-3 km vertical shift of high clouds, in an environment with decreased air density. Similarly, all models simulate an increase in the upper tropospheric clear-sky radiative cooling in warmer conditions.

Additionally, the CRH response to surface warming can be largely predicted by assuming a nearly isothermal vertical shift of upper tropospheric CRH profiles (as per the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis) following a warmer moist adiabat and by considering the increase in CRH magnitude due to changes in atmospheric density. Therefore, if we know the CRH of a reference climate state, we can, to a good approximation, estimate its response to surface warming.

The modeled CRH vertical shift and increase are confirmed by a 15-year-long satellite-derived tropical CRH dataset. The years with the highest SSTs lead to the most positive CRH that is shifted to higher levels, similarly to what is simulated by RCEMIP models.