CME real time prediction using HI beacon data confined by a Solar Orbiter arrival
- 1Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria, Graz, Austria (tanja.amerstorfer@geosphere.at)
- 2Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, South Kensington, UK
- 3Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- 4STFC-RAL Space, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus, Didot, UK
On March 7, 2022 at 22:49 UT, a coronal mass ejection impacted Solar Orbiter, located almost exactly on the Sun-Earth line at a heliocentric distance of 0.49 AU. This exceptionally advantageous spacecraft location yielded the opportunity of constraining the ensemble of our CME propagation model, ELEvoHI, in a way that only the most accurate ensemble members at Solar Orbiter (in terms of predicted arrival time) contributed to the prediction for L1. ELEvoHI is based on STEREO's heliospheric imager data that is available in real time only in a reduced quality, i.e. lower spacial and time resolution compared to science data. However, considering the arrival at Solar Orbiter it was possible to precisely predict the arrival of the CME sheath at L1 in real time. These results emphasize the benefit of having (a) spacecraft situated between the Sun and Earth as an early warning system for Earth-directed CMEs.
How to cite: Amerstorfer, T., Bauer, M., Möstl, C., Laker, R., Horbury, T. S., Dumbovic, M., O'Brien, H., Fauchon-Jones, E. J., Davies, J. A., Harrison, R. A., and Barnes, D.: CME real time prediction using HI beacon data confined by a Solar Orbiter arrival, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2636, 2023.
