Early greenup impact on seasonal streamflow and soil moisture dynamics in humid, temperate forests

Ongoing warming due to climate change has generally led to lengthened growing seasons and subsequent changes in evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow seasonality. This has been well studied in seasonally dry, snowmelt dominated watersheds, but not in humid, temperate forested watersheds without significant seasonal snowmelt. In this study, we investigate how seasonal streamflow patterns have responded to variability in vegetation phenology in the southern Appalachians over the last four decades. We characterize seasonal shifts in low-frequency streamflow peaks using 50^th percentiles of cumulative daily precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture measurements, and investigate interactions with remotely sensed, long-term greenup anomalies in the deciduous-dominated forested watersheds. After removing a dominant precipitation control, one-day earlier greenup is associated with about one-day early spring flow peak at the low-elevation deciduous catchment. This indicates that the strong dependency of seasonal flow regimes on precipitation is mediated by warming-induced extended growing season, especially by early greenup. In contrast, we find less significant correlations of the greenup anomalies on flow percentiles of an adjacent evergreen and a high-elevation deciduous catchment. At a plot scale, similar correlations of cumulative soil moisture days were found only at an upslope topographic position, where precipitation also showed tighter coupling with soil moisture patterns than downslope. This indicates that early greenup in deciduous forests leading to early ET increase, in turn results in early soil moisture dry-down patterned by hillslope positions, and earlier seasonal streamflow peaks and subsequent declines. Our study suggests that spring flow peaks are likely to shift earlier by warming-induced early greenup even in snow-free regions, which has great implications for future freshwater availability in the southeastern US.