The opportunity cost of land use restrictions and their impact on the energy transition - a case study for Germany´s onshore wind power

Wind power onshore is one of the key technologies in the process of transitioning to a climate-neutral energy system. Yet, negative externalities of wind power for people and nature can occur. These externalities are usually regulated with spatial planning instruments that exclude certain areas from wind power development, like forest bans or increased setback distances to settlements, which were introduced across many regions in recent years. However, this regulatory practice can cause trade-offs between the regulated externalities. We use a multi-criteria GIS-based model of the potential areas for wind power onshore in Germany to identify and quantify these trade-offs for forest bans and setback distances to settlements.  Our results show that relevant trade-offs exist between a forest ban and the proximity of the remaining potential areas to settlements as well as between setback distances and the share of forest in the remaining potential area. Further, we find that individual and simultaneous implementations of the described regulations reduce the potential area of and production potential from wind power to an extent that future expansion targets for onshore wind power in Germany are no longer achievable.