Drought risk assessment under climate change impacts utilizing CMIP6 climate models in the coastal zone of the Mekong Delta

Drought is a natural hazard that occurs every year in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MDV). In recent years, drought has become more severe, increasing socio-economic risk. Climate change is one of the primary reasons aggravating the level of drought. Therefore, giving a drought risk assessment that integrates climate change impacts is crucial. This study contributes to a proof-of-concept comprehensive drought risk assessment under the impacts of climate change in the coastal provinces of the MDV. The risk of MDV for climate hazards has been assessed considering three key elements - hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Three CMIP6 global climate model datasets – MIROC6, CESM2, and CNRM-CM6-1 – and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are selected to project climate change from 2025 to 2100. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been used to assess the future drought hazard. Drought exposure and vulnerability are derived using statistical data on natural and socioeconomic characteristics from provincial statistical yearbooks. The results of this study will benefit policymakers to develop risk management strategies in minimizing the drought risks in the coastal estuarine deltas under the long-term impacts of climate change.