Drivers of sustained drought over the Arabian Peninsula in recent decades

The predominantly desert region of the Arabian Peninsula (AP), comprising seven nations, is characterized by high temperatures and meager rainfall. Temperature, and dust activity, are exacerbating over the AP. In the current study, we found that drought frequency and severity have increased in the AP over the last two decades compared to the previous five decades. This recent drought intensification is characterized by dominant decadal variability in addition to what appears to be a long-term trend. The current droughts intensification appears to be driven by increased warming over the AP than by a decrease in local precipitation. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) cycle is strongly related to decadal drought variability, and the current unprecedented multiyear drought is associated with current positive phase of AMO. We developed a statistical model for future projections that indicates that the frequency and intensity of droughts over the AP are expected to decrease significantly in the coming year.