Ambient Stress in Subduction Forearcs Constrained by Numerical Models and Earthquake Static Stress Drop Values

Stress in active subduction forearcs is controlled primarily by friction along the megathrust and the gravitational force. The competing deviatoric compressive and tensional stresses generated by megathrust friction and gravity, respectively, are of the same order of magnitude and result in very low deviatoric stress in the forearc. The near neutral stress state in subduction forearcs is supported by observations of stress reversal, that is a change from deviatoric compression to deviatoric tension, caused by very small megathrust shear stress drops (<10MPa) after recent large megathrust earthquakes. However, studies that quantify and compare the stress state in subduction forearcs at various stages of the seismic cycle are still limited. Here, we use two-dimensional finite-element force-balance models to quantify and constrain forearc stresses at different locations along the Chilean and Japanese subduction margins that are at different stages of the seismic cycle. The models consider forearc topography, slab geometry, crustal thickness, and water load to quantify the elastic stress in the forearc due to gravity and friction along the megathrust. The models indicate low deviatoric stress values (10s of MPa) in the subduction forearcs, which imply a weak forearc crust in areas of active seismic deformation. We validate the model results by estimating seismic stress drop values of forearc earthquakes from high-quality seismic waveform recordings. We estimate spectral corner frequency using both single-spectrum and spectral-ratio estimates and depth-dependent shear-wave velocity models. Spectral-ratio estimates provide more robust corner-frequency estimates that we employ to validate and interpret the increasing stress drop trend down to depths of ~50-60 km. The slight depth dependency of seismic stress drop values is consistent with depth dependency of deviatoric stress obtained from the finite-element models. Moreover, we find that average seismic stress drop values are systematically lower or similar to maximum deviatoric stress obtained from our models, which is consistent with a partial stress release during earthquakes in the forearc. Our results suggest a relation between seismic stress drop values and ambient stress in subduction forearcs.