Future changes of extreme precipitation and meteorological drought in Northern Italy

Simulation of daily rainfall for the region of Bologna produced by 13 up-to-date climate models for the period 1850–2100 are considered. In particular, model simulations are compared with the historical series of daily rainfall observed in Bologna in terms of annual, seasonal, extreme precipitation and meteorological drought for the period 1850–2014. Future changes of both precipitation and meteorological drought are analysed to assess future scenarios up to 2100 to derive information on the future development of critical events for water resources availability and flood risk. The results prove that rainfall statistics, including seasonal patterns and extremes, are fairly well simulated by models. For future projections, extreme rainfall shows a more significant change compared to the mean annual rainfall. In terms of meteorological droughts, we conclude that historical data analysis under the assumption of stationarity may depict a more critical future with respect to climate model simulations, therefore outlining important technical indications.